The Unhooded Falcon
Greece's Airline: Now Featuring An 11% Yield
Jun. 30, 2015 4:33 AM ET | 6 comments | About: AEGEAN AIRLINES (AGZNF)
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AGZNF over the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
Airlines typically pay small dividends and prefer share buybacks to cash dividends.
Aegean Airlines yields over 11% at current levels.
Despite the high yield, the dividend may be sustainable under the right circumstances.
Most dividend investors are not fans of airlines and most airline investors are not dividend seekers. But the current situation at Aegean Airlines (OTC:AGZNF) could bring some on each side together to collect the company's 11% yield.
The Greek airline
Combining Greece and airlines may seem like financial suicide to many investors but there is actually a reasonable case for choosing Aegean Airlines.
Formed from the merger of privately-run Aegean Airlines and state-owned Olympic Air, Aegean now controls roughly 90% of Greece's air travel market. In fact, European competition regulators were so concerned about this market control that they blocked the merger the first time and only relented when it became clear Olympic would not survive on its own.
Although Aegean does face some competition from other European and Middle Eastern carriers, its larger market share gives it pricing power that most carriers could only dream of. In comparison to Aegean's near 90% share of the market, the four largest U.S. carriers only control about 70% of the U.S. market and the two largest Canadian carriers only control about 80% of the Canadian market.
While the Greek market may not be as big, it does benefit from foreign tourism allowing Aegean to collect revenue from travelers outside of Greece. This has helped Aegean to be profitable since 2013 and report a loss of just 0.15 euros per share in 2012 despite a persistently depressed Greek economy.
Funding the dividend
Being profitable and paying an 11% dividend are two different matters and it makes sense that investors may be skeptical of being able to collect this double-digit yield.
But we need to look at why the dividend is so high. Unlike some companies which are paying out more than they take in, Aegean's payout ratio is only about 0.7. The real reason for the yield being so high is that Aegean trades at a low valuation reflecting investor positioning on Greece and airlines.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Price to Earnings/ Forward Price to Earnings 5.52 6.24 5.83 5.78
Payout Ratio Based on Current 0.70 EUR rate 0.63 0.71 0.66 0.65
Keep in mind there is a 10% dividend withholding tax on Aegean's dividend although these taxes are typically able to be applied against U.S. taxes.
What about the Greek debt crisis?
The situation involving Greece's sovereign debt problem currently dominates headlines from the nation as it should. If a solution is not found, it could result in Greece defaulting on its debts and leaving the Eurozone.
Negotiations are going down to the wire but even if a solution is not found, Aegean could still be in a tolerable position. The Greek economy would likely take at least a temporary hit hurting travel domestic travel demand. However, if Greece leaves the Euro and adopts its own currency, Greek goods would likely become cheaper in Euro terms making tourism to Greece more attractive to citizens of other European nations.
Through the past few years, Aegean has shown a remarkable ability to produce profits in a nation facing a debt crisis, stunted growth, and an unemployment rate topping 25%. Overall, a Greek default and Eurozone exit would probably be a negative for Aegean Airlines but the airline should survive and could even continue producing strong profits.
Should you buy?
I believe that the current Greek debt situation has set Aegean Airlines up as an interesting value and dividend play. However, those looking to get shares even cheaper may want to hold off on the bulk of their investment until the situation if Greece becomes even more strained.
Although a Greek debt default would not be as damaging to Aegean as it would be to certain other Greek companies such as the major Greek banks, market panic could cause Aegean's shares to drop as well presenting an even better buying opportunity.
Risks
While I believe investors should consider Aegean Airlines for their own portfolios, there are some risks that should not be ignored.
First, Greece does face a major debt crisis that could cause it to leave the Eurozone and/or depress its economy further. This could crimp domestic demand hurting revenues at home. A "Grexit" could also cause a sudden plunge in all Greek stocks that Aegean would be unable to escape negatively affecting shares in the short-term.
Second, Aegean is facing new competition from European and Middle Eastern carriers including state-owned Middle Eastern carriers and European budget airlines like Ryanair (NASDAQ:RYAAY). Over time, Aegean's 90% market share is likely to fall and increased pricing pressure could result. This is an area to keep an eye on but the current market alignment leaves lots of room for change before Aegean would see a major threat.
And third, Aegean may cut or suspend its dividend to retain capital if it feels pressured by the economic situation or wants to reinvest in its business. However, based on its current payout ratio and valuation, Aegean could make a substantial dividend cut and still produce a well above average yield. Fortunately for shareholders, the dividend is an annual payment that was recently made so the airline has until May of next year to decide how to move forward. This gives time for the current Greek debt crisis to play out further and Aegean to assess the situation.
Aegean Airlines takeaway
Aegean Airlines is certainly different from the more conservative high-yield airline I discussed in my last airline dividend article. However, Aegean offers a rare case of value and yield is an area ignored by many Greece investors.
Depending on how the Greek debt situation plays out, I may add shares of Aegean Airlines to my personal portfolio. For investors that want to do the same, I recommend looking at the Athens Stock Exchange which has far higher volume for Aegean than the U.S. listing.
Additional disclosure: The author does not guarantee the performance of any investments and potential investors should always do their own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Although the author believes that the information presented here is correct to the best of his knowledge, no warranties are made and potential investors should always conduct their own independent research before making any investment decisions. Investing carries risk of loss and is not suitable for all individuals.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3292695-greeces-airline-now-featuring-an-11-percent-yield