Thread Airbus 330 NEO
- Autore Discussione kenyaprince
- Data d'inizio
Sul transatlantico non serve l'autonomia del 350, così come non serve in Asia e fra America del Nord e America latina.
Delta, American, Cathay Pacific, Dragonair, e varie cinesi potrebbero essere interessate. Ipotesi remota ma... MOL si lamentava del prezzo e della scarsa disponibilità del 787: io non ho mai dato molta retta alle dichiarazioni di MOL in materia di intercontinentale, ma questo potrebbe essere l'aereo adatto.
Hawaiian e Aeroflot hanno ordini di 358 da sostituire. Azul potrebbe farci un pensierino se l'avvio delle operazioni verso l'America del Nord dovesse avere successo.
Turkish ha sempre fretta di crescere.
Delta, American, Cathay Pacific, Dragonair, e varie cinesi potrebbero essere interessate. Ipotesi remota ma... MOL si lamentava del prezzo e della scarsa disponibilità del 787: io non ho mai dato molta retta alle dichiarazioni di MOL in materia di intercontinentale, ma questo potrebbe essere l'aereo adatto.
Hawaiian e Aeroflot hanno ordini di 358 da sostituire. Azul potrebbe farci un pensierino se l'avvio delle operazioni verso l'America del Nord dovesse avere successo.
Turkish ha sempre fretta di crescere.
Intanto siamo gia' a 105 ordini "firm", tutti per l'A330-900neo:
25 Air Lease Corporation
15 CIT
15 Avolon
50 Air Asia X
25 Air Lease Corporation
15 CIT
15 Avolon
50 Air Asia X
Prossimi in lista potrebbero essere VS e DL, considerato che, recentemente, il management inglese aveva spinto, sotto probabile consiglio di Anderson, per lo sviluppo della versione NEO.
VS riceverà a breve i B789. Già oggi i 333 in flotta VS sono li per i ritardi nello sviluppo del progetto 787. Con una flotta tutto sommato modesta di una trentina di wide body non credo abbia senso avere 2 aerei simili.
Logicamente, avrebbe molto senso razionalizzare una flotta, di per sè, disomogenea, ma quanto riportato dalle dichiarazioni ufficiali, sembra andare in una direzione differente.
http://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...terest-to-virgin-atlantic-a380s-to-be-delayed
http://www.btmagazine.nl/virgin-atlantic-interested-new-airbus-a330-neo/
Se guardiamo alle speculazione della stampa 2 mesi fa sempre in tema di VS Branson in persona ipotizzava di affiancare ai 789 i 781.
Poi bisogna tornare al mondo reale dei numeri che dicono che oggi la flotta lungo raggio (escludendo quindi i 4 A320) VS consiste in 38 aerei:
10 A330/300 praticamente nuovi
12 B747/400
3 A340/300
13 A340/600
Arriveranno nei prossimi sicuri 15 B787/900 che andranno a sostituire gli A340/300 e parte degli A340/600. Gli A380 arriveranno molto più avanti.
Probabilmente per un mix di flotta ottimale sarebbe sufficiente affiancare ai B789 dei B781. Ormai VS per come si sta evolvendo il mercato non necessiterà più di aerei di grande capacità e già trovare un mercato nel loro network ai 380 in ordine non sarà facile. Il tutto nonostante per altri 10 anni certamente non ci saranno piste aggiuntive su Londra.
Nell'ottica di flotta VS manca un aereo che vada a piazzarsi nel prossimo decennio fra gli A333 e l'A388.
Spazio che potrebbe essere colmato o dal A350-1000 o dalla famiglia del B777X. Ponendo che invece non necessitino di colmare quello spazio allora la partita può essere fra B787-10 o A330-900 Neo o A350-900. Vista la presenza di B787 e A330 in flotta ci sono elementi in comune per entrambi, a questo punto contano tanti fattori, prezzo, slot, equipaggi, cosa sceglie DL. In questa ottica gli A330-900 Neo ci stanno, poi sarà la contrattazione con le varie parti in causa a dare la differenza.
Nel frattempo, Transaero, ordina 8 330ceo e 12 neo, aggiudicandosi il titolo di primo ordine da parte di un operatore europeo della macchina.
Quindi direi che l'A330 Neo ha già riempito circa un anno di produzione, non male come inizio.
ANALISYS
FARNBOROUGH, UK: The new A330-800 and A330-900 will be extremely competitive aircraft from day one. By EIS, as we mentioned in our 787 report earlier this week, we expect the A330-800neo to come within 2% of the seat-mile economics of present day Boeing 787-8s, and the A330-900 to come within 0.5% of present-day.
By the expected EIS of the A330neo in the fourth quarter 2017, we project that Boeing will gain an additional 2.5% worth of incremental fuel burn improvement on the 787-8, and -9 thanks to weight reduction of 1-1.5% and other initiatives. We further project that Boeing will improve the efficiency of its 787 manufacturing processes by 3-4%, which will improve its ability to discount aircraft. Furthermore, as mentioned before, we expect Boeing to pitch the 787-9 versus the A330-800neo, and the 787-10 versus the A330-900neo, which in both cases would allow Boeing to operate from a strong operating cost advantage.
The 787-8, while not quite dead, has grown out of favor with customers, and with the advent of the A330-800neo, we expect the sales center of the 787 program moving forward to continue to shift in favor of the 787-9/10. Airbus will have plenty of space to discount, however a new larger engine (112 inches versus 97), increased wingspan, and A350-style winglets will increase the development costs above those of a basic re-engine program.
In terms of sales, at a briefing before the open of the Farnborough Airshow, Boeing Commercial VP of Marketing Randy Tinseth noted that he thought the market for the A330neo was “no more than 300 or 400 airplanes.” We believe that the market is a bit larger, upwards of 750 frames to be exact.
We project that the A330-900neo will be the larger seller of the two variants, primarily due to ithe popularity of the A330-300 with Asian airlines. The A330-900neo will achieve operating cost parity (excluding capital costs) with the 787-9 out to about 3,000 nautical miles, and will be extremely competitive out to 4,000 nautical miles. The range extension of 400 nautical miles is also a welcome development, as customers of the A330-300 often push that aircraft to the edge of its capabilities. We are skeptical of Airbus’ ability to deliver 14% per seat fuel burn improvement on the A330neo initially, though an expected boost in seating capacity should help. The 787 is sold out for several years, and the superior availability of the A330-900neo should make it a viable option.
Based on the best information available to us, and incorporating all of the projections made above, we are now ready to release operating cost estimates for the A330-800/900neo on a 4,350 nautical mile (5,000 mile – ESAD) route. The price of fuel is taken as $2.94 per gallon as per IATA’s latest North American monitor.
A330-800neo Boeing 787-8 A330-900neo Boeing 787-9 Boeing 787-10
Seats 252 246 305 306 352
Fuel Cost $44,446 $41,477 $50,567 $47,956 $52,959
Crew Cost $12,194 $12,194 $13,457 $13,944 $15,013
Maintenance $9,432 $8,652 $10,097. $9,795 $10,367
Other $8,218 $7,441 $9,149 $9,266 $9,905
TOTAL $74,290 $69,764 $83,269 $80,961 $88,244
Cost per
Aircraft Mile $14.86 $13.95 $16.65 $16.19 $17.65
Cost per
Seat Mile $0.059 $0.057 $0.055 $0.053 $0.050
Versus A330-800neo Datum 3.8% 7.4% 10.3% 15.0%
Versus A330-900neo -8.0% -3.9% Datum 3.1% 8.2%
These figures represent comparison with our best estimate for 787 performance for new build 787s in 2019, not present day ones. As our analysis clearly shows, even with expected improvements, the A330-800/900neo comes within 3-4% of the operating economics of the 787. When combined with superior availability, it is our view that the A330neo has a clear and viable business case, even if it won’t match the runaway success of its smaller cousin, the A320neo.
FARNBOROUGH, UK: The new A330-800 and A330-900 will be extremely competitive aircraft from day one. By EIS, as we mentioned in our 787 report earlier this week, we expect the A330-800neo to come within 2% of the seat-mile economics of present day Boeing 787-8s, and the A330-900 to come within 0.5% of present-day.
By the expected EIS of the A330neo in the fourth quarter 2017, we project that Boeing will gain an additional 2.5% worth of incremental fuel burn improvement on the 787-8, and -9 thanks to weight reduction of 1-1.5% and other initiatives. We further project that Boeing will improve the efficiency of its 787 manufacturing processes by 3-4%, which will improve its ability to discount aircraft. Furthermore, as mentioned before, we expect Boeing to pitch the 787-9 versus the A330-800neo, and the 787-10 versus the A330-900neo, which in both cases would allow Boeing to operate from a strong operating cost advantage.
The 787-8, while not quite dead, has grown out of favor with customers, and with the advent of the A330-800neo, we expect the sales center of the 787 program moving forward to continue to shift in favor of the 787-9/10. Airbus will have plenty of space to discount, however a new larger engine (112 inches versus 97), increased wingspan, and A350-style winglets will increase the development costs above those of a basic re-engine program.
In terms of sales, at a briefing before the open of the Farnborough Airshow, Boeing Commercial VP of Marketing Randy Tinseth noted that he thought the market for the A330neo was “no more than 300 or 400 airplanes.” We believe that the market is a bit larger, upwards of 750 frames to be exact.
We project that the A330-900neo will be the larger seller of the two variants, primarily due to ithe popularity of the A330-300 with Asian airlines. The A330-900neo will achieve operating cost parity (excluding capital costs) with the 787-9 out to about 3,000 nautical miles, and will be extremely competitive out to 4,000 nautical miles. The range extension of 400 nautical miles is also a welcome development, as customers of the A330-300 often push that aircraft to the edge of its capabilities. We are skeptical of Airbus’ ability to deliver 14% per seat fuel burn improvement on the A330neo initially, though an expected boost in seating capacity should help. The 787 is sold out for several years, and the superior availability of the A330-900neo should make it a viable option.
Based on the best information available to us, and incorporating all of the projections made above, we are now ready to release operating cost estimates for the A330-800/900neo on a 4,350 nautical mile (5,000 mile – ESAD) route. The price of fuel is taken as $2.94 per gallon as per IATA’s latest North American monitor.
A330-800neo Boeing 787-8 A330-900neo Boeing 787-9 Boeing 787-10
Seats 252 246 305 306 352
Fuel Cost $44,446 $41,477 $50,567 $47,956 $52,959
Crew Cost $12,194 $12,194 $13,457 $13,944 $15,013
Maintenance $9,432 $8,652 $10,097. $9,795 $10,367
Other $8,218 $7,441 $9,149 $9,266 $9,905
TOTAL $74,290 $69,764 $83,269 $80,961 $88,244
Cost per
Aircraft Mile $14.86 $13.95 $16.65 $16.19 $17.65
Cost per
Seat Mile $0.059 $0.057 $0.055 $0.053 $0.050
Versus A330-800neo Datum 3.8% 7.4% 10.3% 15.0%
Versus A330-900neo -8.0% -3.9% Datum 3.1% 8.2%
These figures represent comparison with our best estimate for 787 performance for new build 787s in 2019, not present day ones. As our analysis clearly shows, even with expected improvements, the A330-800/900neo comes within 3-4% of the operating economics of the 787. When combined with superior availability, it is our view that the A330neo has a clear and viable business case, even if it won’t match the runaway success of its smaller cousin, the A320neo.
Hawaiian signs a MOU for six new Airbus A330-800neo aircraft, reports 2Q GAAP net income of $27.3 million
Hawaiian Airlines (Honolulu) today announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Airbus to acquire six new Airbus A330-800neo aircraft starting in 2019, with rights to purchase an additional six aircraft as part of the carrier’s vision to serve farther nonstop destinations from Hawai’i.
The order replaces Hawaiian Airline’s existing order for six Airbus A350XWB-800 aircraft, which were due for delivery from 2017. Hawaiian Airline’s overall capital commitments will decrease in absolute terms and will be pushed further into the future. For the period through the end of 2018, this amounts to $500 million. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but the aircraft have a total list-price value of approximately $2.9 billion if all of the purchase rights are exercised.
“The A330-800neo’s fuel efficiency, additional range and commonality with our existing A330 fleet makes the A330-800neo an elegant solution to our need for growth aircraft toward the end of this decade,” said Mark Dunkerley, Hawaiian Airlines president and chief executive officer.
The A330-800neo wide-body is similar in size to Hawaiian Airline’s A330-200 which seats 294 passengers in a two class configuration (First and Coach), and will incorporate aerodynamic enhancements and new cabin features. The new aircraft will have up to a 400-nautical mile increase in range and reduced fuel consumption by 14 percent per seat with the latest generation Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines.
Hawaiian Airlines currently operates a fleet of 50 aircraft, comprised of 29 wide-body, long-haul aircraft (294-seat A330-200 aircraft and 252 to 264-seat Boeing 767-300 aircraft), 18 narrow-body 118 to 123-seat Boeing 717-200 aircraft and three 48-seat ATR 42-500 for Neighbor Island flights.
Hawaiian Airline’s existing orders include an additional four new A330-200s for delivery by 2015 and 16 narrow-body A321neo aircraft starting in 2017.
On the financial side, the company issued this statement for the second quarter:
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., parent company of Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., today reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2014.
GAAP net income in the second quarter of $27.3 million or $0.43 per diluted share.
Adjusted net income, reflecting economic fuel expense, in the second quarter of $22.4 million or $0.35 per diluted share, an increase of $9.7 million or $0.11 cents per diluted share year-over-year.
Passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increase of 4.1% and operating revenue per available seat mile (RASM) increase of 6.7%.
Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $564 million.
“The same trajectory of substantially improving financial performance was evident in the second quarter as it has been over the last few quarters,” said Mark Dunkerley, Hawaiian Airlines president and chief executive officer. “Strong demand across our geographies, good macro-economic conditions, stable fuel prices and good cost control inside the business all played their part. Absent changes to the environment or competitor behavior, our prospects in the back half of the year look similar. As ever, we continue to build the business with new routes, this summer featuring our first flights from North America to Kaua’i and the island of Hawai’i, and a host of customer improvements including the roll out of our extra comfort economy section of the aircraft. Our wonderful employees continue to deliver the level of service on the ground and in the air that set the standard for others to aspire to. Without their dedication, none of this would be possible.”
Liquidity and Capital Resources
As of June 30, 2014 the Company had:
Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $564 million.
Available borrowing capacity of $69.4 million under Hawaiian’s Revolving Credit Facility.
Outstanding debt and capital lease obligations of approximately $1,071 million consisting of the following:
$708 million outstanding under secured loan agreements to finance a portion of the purchase price for eleven Airbus A330-200 aircraft.
$146 million outstanding under secured loan agreements to finance a portion of the purchase price for 15 Boeing 717-200 aircraft.
$106 million in capital lease obligations to finance the acquisition of an Airbus A330-200, two Boeing 717-200 aircraft and aircraft-related equipment.
$32 million outstanding under floating rate notes for two Boeing 767-300 ER aircraft.
$79 million of outstanding Convertible Senior Notes.
Hawaiian Airlines (Honolulu) today announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Airbus to acquire six new Airbus A330-800neo aircraft starting in 2019, with rights to purchase an additional six aircraft as part of the carrier’s vision to serve farther nonstop destinations from Hawai’i.
The order replaces Hawaiian Airline’s existing order for six Airbus A350XWB-800 aircraft, which were due for delivery from 2017. Hawaiian Airline’s overall capital commitments will decrease in absolute terms and will be pushed further into the future. For the period through the end of 2018, this amounts to $500 million. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but the aircraft have a total list-price value of approximately $2.9 billion if all of the purchase rights are exercised.
“The A330-800neo’s fuel efficiency, additional range and commonality with our existing A330 fleet makes the A330-800neo an elegant solution to our need for growth aircraft toward the end of this decade,” said Mark Dunkerley, Hawaiian Airlines president and chief executive officer.
The A330-800neo wide-body is similar in size to Hawaiian Airline’s A330-200 which seats 294 passengers in a two class configuration (First and Coach), and will incorporate aerodynamic enhancements and new cabin features. The new aircraft will have up to a 400-nautical mile increase in range and reduced fuel consumption by 14 percent per seat with the latest generation Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines.
Hawaiian Airlines currently operates a fleet of 50 aircraft, comprised of 29 wide-body, long-haul aircraft (294-seat A330-200 aircraft and 252 to 264-seat Boeing 767-300 aircraft), 18 narrow-body 118 to 123-seat Boeing 717-200 aircraft and three 48-seat ATR 42-500 for Neighbor Island flights.
Hawaiian Airline’s existing orders include an additional four new A330-200s for delivery by 2015 and 16 narrow-body A321neo aircraft starting in 2017.
On the financial side, the company issued this statement for the second quarter:
Hawaiian Holdings, Inc., parent company of Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., today reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2014.
GAAP net income in the second quarter of $27.3 million or $0.43 per diluted share.
Adjusted net income, reflecting economic fuel expense, in the second quarter of $22.4 million or $0.35 per diluted share, an increase of $9.7 million or $0.11 cents per diluted share year-over-year.
Passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) increase of 4.1% and operating revenue per available seat mile (RASM) increase of 6.7%.
Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $564 million.
“The same trajectory of substantially improving financial performance was evident in the second quarter as it has been over the last few quarters,” said Mark Dunkerley, Hawaiian Airlines president and chief executive officer. “Strong demand across our geographies, good macro-economic conditions, stable fuel prices and good cost control inside the business all played their part. Absent changes to the environment or competitor behavior, our prospects in the back half of the year look similar. As ever, we continue to build the business with new routes, this summer featuring our first flights from North America to Kaua’i and the island of Hawai’i, and a host of customer improvements including the roll out of our extra comfort economy section of the aircraft. Our wonderful employees continue to deliver the level of service on the ground and in the air that set the standard for others to aspire to. Without their dedication, none of this would be possible.”
Liquidity and Capital Resources
As of June 30, 2014 the Company had:
Unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $564 million.
Available borrowing capacity of $69.4 million under Hawaiian’s Revolving Credit Facility.
Outstanding debt and capital lease obligations of approximately $1,071 million consisting of the following:
$708 million outstanding under secured loan agreements to finance a portion of the purchase price for eleven Airbus A330-200 aircraft.
$146 million outstanding under secured loan agreements to finance a portion of the purchase price for 15 Boeing 717-200 aircraft.
$106 million in capital lease obligations to finance the acquisition of an Airbus A330-200, two Boeing 717-200 aircraft and aircraft-related equipment.
$32 million outstanding under floating rate notes for two Boeing 767-300 ER aircraft.
$79 million of outstanding Convertible Senior Notes.
Hawaiian Airlines has committed to six Airbus A330-800neo aircraft, replacing its order for the Airbus A350-800.The Honolulu-based carrier has signed a memorandum of understanding for six firm with purchase rights for another six A330-800neos with deliveries from 2019 with the European airframer, it says.“The A330-800neo's fuel efficiency, additional range and commonality with our existing A330 fleet makes the A330-800neo an elegant solution to our need for growth aircraft toward the end of this decade," says Mark Dunkerley, president and chief executive of Hawaiian, in a statement.Airbus launched the A330neo at the Farnborough air show earlier in July. The A330-800neo will be comparable in size to Hawaiian’s existing A330-200s yet able to fly 400nm further with a range of 7,450nm and will burn about 14% less fuel per seat using Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines.The A330-800neo order is valued at roughly $2.9 billion at list prices, the airline says.Hawaiian’s conversion to the A330neo leaves Airbus with just 28 firm orders for the A350-800, based on its most recent orders and deliveries. The airframer is widely expected to cancel the programme in favour of the larger A350-900 and -1000 variants.
Analisi ampiamente condivisibile. L'unica variabile che potrebbe restaurare il pieno vantaggio del 787 rispetto al 330 sarebbe un incremento del costo del petrolio: un vettore potrebbe anche decidere di considerare un prezzo di acquisto (del 787) leggermente più alto come modo di fare hedging. Una diminuzione del costo del petrolio, al contrario, porterebbe il 330neo ad avere un vantaggio notevole.
Non vedo incorporata nell'analisi una riflessione sul belly cargo, sul quale Boeing dovrebbe avere un leggero vantaggio (soprattutto in termini di peso).
Una variabile meno importante potrebbe essere la velocità di crociera: mi pare che sia previsto un vantaggio fra il 3% e il 4% a favore del 787, che renderebbe la macchina di Boeing leggermente più produttiva e farebbe risparmiare qualche soldo sul fronte dei crew cost al vettore. Infine, rimane il discorso delle economie di scala relative alla motorizzazione: chi ha una flotta prevalentemente GE, potrebbe non voler aggiungere un contratto separato con RR e una manutenzione separata, ma anche questo è un vantaggio molto modesto per Boeing.
Da considerare anche il raggio: i numeri riportati nell'articolo sono relativi a uno stage length medio di 5000 miglia nautiche (e altri articoli mostrano numeri analoghi prendendo 4000 miglia nautiche come riferimento), per il quale Airbus presenta ora un prodotto estremamente competitivo, ma per alcuni vettori l'autonomia inferiore del 330 potrebbe essere problematica.
Da capire se tutti questi piccoli vantaggi sul fronte delle performance basteranno a Boeing a contrastare i vari elementi favorevoli al 330neo, dal prezzo alla disponibilità di slot, passando per la semplicità di inserimento in flotta per chi già possiede A330.
La battaglia commerciale sul segmento si fa davvero interessante, e Airbus mantiene già le prime promesse: la conversione dei rimanenti ordini di 350-800 in 330-800 è d'obbligo per Airbus, e la prima (Hawaiian) sembra già cosa fatta.
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Mi chiedo quale sia l'impatto del calo del costo del petrolio sulla concorrenza fra 330neo e 787. Per un verso, se il prezzo dei carburanti rimanesse basso per più di qualche mese, il 330neo avrebbe un ulteriore vantaggio sul 787 (lo svantaggio sul fronte dei consumi si assottiglierebbe, aumentando il vantaggio del prezzo più basso); d'altro canto, molti vettori potrebbero decidere di posticipare l'uscita di flotta di aerei della generazione attuale, consentendo al 787 di guadagnare tempo e liberare slot di consegna da mettere a disposizione.
Se il prezzo del petrolio resta basso per tutto il 2015, consentendo alle compagnie di portare a scadenza i futures contratti nei mesi passati e - quindi - di beneficiare realmente di un petrolio più a buon mercato, si aprono degli scenari interessanti.
Innanzitutto bisogna vedere se si scatenerà una guerra dei prezzi del biglietto per guadagnare quote di mercato e far uscire i pesci piccoli, con poca cassa in pancia, definitivamente dai giochi. In tale caso ritardare l'ingresso in flotta di nuovi aerei potrebbe essere una delle misure per finanziare l'operazione. Specie negli USA, dove l'età media della flotta domestica delle major è già altina e un altro paio di anni in più per gli MD-80 o 767 cambierebbe poco nella dinamica dei giochi (tanto più che il passeggero medio USA è molto più interessato a miglia, status e wifi, che ad aerei nuovi, vedi il successo di Delta in proposito).
In questo caso pioveranno allungamenti di consegne e cancellazioni, un bel problema per Boeing e Airbus. Per quanto riguarda la lotta A330-787, penso che gli impatti siano minimi sul breve: la vita operativa di queste macchine si misura in decenni e pochi mesi di calo del greggio non dovrebbero cambiare i giochi più di tanto, per ora. Anche considerando che i processi decisionali delle grandi compagnie hanno tempi che si misurano in mesi, spesso anni.
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