Norwegian faces collapse


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sarebbe interessante sapere con quale chiave di lettura l’opinione pubblica sta comunicando la faccenda ai cittadini. Credo dipenda tutto da li. Ripeto, anche se il fondo sovrano ha la “potenza di fuoco” per salvare la compagnia aerea, non stiamo parlando di bruscolini per una nazione che ha un PIL equivalente ad un quinto di quello Italiano (e particolarmente dipendente per un 25% dal petrolio). Sono veramente curioso di vedere come andra’ a finire e quale accordo troveranno (perche’ sicuramente un punto di incontro lo troveranno).
 
Io resto dell’idea di quello che ho già scritto tempo fa, ossia che il Governo Norvegese abbia interesse per le sole operazioni Norvegesi. La Norvegia è la nazione Europea con il maggior rapporto viaggi aerei/abitante. Il motivo è dovuto principalmente alla conformazione geografica, nazione lunga, montuosa e con fiordi, che rende i collegamenti terrestri lunghi. Inoltre il basso numero di abitanti rende poco economico costruire in un contesto territoriale difficile determinate infrastrutture, a cui si aggiunge anche la variabile climatica nel nord e interno del paese.
In questo contesto il trasporto aereo è determinate. Mentre per le rotte sottili c’è un sistema di PSO esteso, ove una regional con una quarantina di aerei, Wideroe, la fa da padrona (il vettore era di proprietà SAS, ma è stato venduto 7 anni fa a una società semi pubblica di trasporto Norvegese), sulle restanti rotte la concorrenza tra 2 vettori ha fatto da calmiere dei prezzi e ha stimolato offerta e domanda. Non a caso in passato quando ci fu il merger Braathens + SAS fu necessario un massiccio intervento del anti trust e fu favorita la nascita di Norwegian.
Ora che la Norvegia non ha più quote in SAS, credo che sia tornata in voga anche da loro l’idea di avere una sorta di vettore nazionale, uno per evitare il monopolio di SAS, e due per garantire anche una adeguata accessibilità internazionale del paese.
 
Io resto dell’idea di quello che ho già scritto tempo fa, ossia che il Governo Norvegese abbia interesse per le sole operazioni Norvegesi. La Norvegia è la nazione Europea con il maggior rapporto viaggi aerei/abitante. Il motivo è dovuto principalmente alla conformazione geografica, nazione lunga, montuosa e con fiordi, che rende i collegamenti terrestri lunghi. Inoltre il basso numero di abitanti rende poco economico costruire in un contesto territoriale difficile determinate infrastrutture, a cui si aggiunge anche la variabile climatica nel nord e interno del paese.
In questo contesto il trasporto aereo è determinate. Mentre per le rotte sottili c’è un sistema di PSO esteso, ove una regional con una quarantina di aerei, Wideroe, la fa da padrona (il vettore era di proprietà SAS, ma è stato venduto 7 anni fa a una società semi pubblica di trasporto Norvegese), sulle restanti rotte la concorrenza tra 2 vettori ha fatto da calmiere dei prezzi e ha stimolato offerta e domanda. Non a caso in passato quando ci fu il merger Braathens + SAS fu necessario un massiccio intervento del anti trust e fu favorita la nascita di Norwegian.
Ora che la Norvegia non ha più quote in SAS, credo che sia tornata in voga anche da loro l’idea di avere una sorta di vettore nazionale, uno per evitare il monopolio di SAS, e due per garantire anche una adeguata accessibilità internazionale del paese.

Rimango d'accordo (come un mese fa). Salvare Norwegian long haul non ha senso strategico per la Norvegia.
 
Però io avevo capito che sono fallite le società che gestiscono gli equipaggi, non quelle che si occupano di far volarecgli aerei ed incassare i relativi guadagni. Tant è che nei paesi dove è prevista una cigs, non sojo stati colpiti.
Chiedo a i miei cugggini e vi dico.
 
Ultima modifica:
Però io avevo capito che non sono fallite le società che gestiscono gli equipaggi, non quelle che si occupano di far volarecgli aerei ed incassare i relativi guadagni. Tant è che nei paesi dove è prevista una cigs, non sojo stati colpiti.
Chiedo a i miei cugggini e vi dico.
Si, dovrebbe essere così. Sostanzialmente negli Stati dove gli stipendi non sono stati posti in carico ad ammortizzatori sociali hanno chiuso le società che gestiscono il personale e tutti a casa credo salvando il COA. Dipende dalla legislazione di ogni paese, almeno credo.
 
Però io avevo capito che sono fallite le società che gestiscono gli equipaggi, non quelle che si occupano di far volarecgli aerei ed incassare i relativi guadagni. Tant è che nei paesi dove è prevista una cigs, non sojo stati colpiti.
Chiedo a i miei cugggini e vi dico.

Esatto. Credo che il discorso di airblue fosse indipendente dal destino delle società che reclutano e pagano gli equipaggi.
 
Io resto dell’idea di quello che ho già scritto tempo fa, ossia che il Governo Norvegese abbia interesse per le sole operazioni Norvegesi. La Norvegia è la nazione Europea con il maggior rapporto viaggi aerei/abitante. Il motivo è dovuto principalmente alla conformazione geografica, nazione lunga, montuosa e con fiordi, che rende i collegamenti terrestri lunghi. Inoltre il basso numero di abitanti rende poco economico costruire in un contesto territoriale difficile determinate infrastrutture, a cui si aggiunge anche la variabile climatica nel nord e interno del paese.
In questo contesto il trasporto aereo è determinate. Mentre per le rotte sottili c’è un sistema di PSO esteso, ove una regional con una quarantina di aerei, Wideroe, la fa da padrona (il vettore era di proprietà SAS, ma è stato venduto 7 anni fa a una società semi pubblica di trasporto Norvegese), sulle restanti rotte la concorrenza tra 2 vettori ha fatto da calmiere dei prezzi e ha stimolato offerta e domanda. Non a caso in passato quando ci fu il merger Braathens + SAS fu necessario un massiccio intervento del anti trust e fu favorita la nascita di Norwegian.
Ora che la Norvegia non ha più quote in SAS, credo che sia tornata in voga anche da loro l’idea di avere una sorta di vettore nazionale, uno per evitare il monopolio di SAS, e due per garantire anche una adeguata accessibilità internazionale del paese.

Se fosse cosi non converrebbe farla fallire e costituire una nuova societa’ a capitale statale con 20/30 aerei? Metterci 300 milioni per poi ritrovarsi a settembre punto a capo che senso avrebbe?
 
By Victoria Klesty

OSLO (Reuters) - Norway's parliament voted through a new company restructuring law on Friday that could help save Norwegian Air and many other companies from potential bankruptcy as a result of the restrictions to stem the spread of COVID-19.

The legislation replaces current regulation on debt negotiations and relaxes rules for converting debt into equity.

"(The new law) is a more efficient tool to ... sort out what parts of a business can be strong enough to survive," Justice Minster Monica Maeland told parliament.

Her comments were not aimed at any specific firms, but budget carrier Norwegian Air is among those likely to benefit, said Kristoffer Aaseboe, a lawyer at Oslo-based law firm Bull & Co.


"This temporary restructuring law will increase the likelihood to get restructurings in place," Aaseboe, who specialises in insolvency and reconstruction, told Reuters.

The airline is seeking to convert debt to equity to qualify for state guarantees in a bid to survive the coronavirus crisis, which has grounded all but a handful of its nearly 160 aircraft.

The law will mean only 50% of the debtors and 50% of shareholders have to agree to a solution, which is less strict than under the current law, Bull & Co lawyer Klemet Gaski said.

Norwegian Air this week said four of its Swedish and Danish subsidiaries had filed for bankruptcy and that it had ended staffing contracts in Europe and the United States, putting some 4,700 jobs at risk.

The company still aims to emerge from the crisis, and will hold meetings of bondholders and shareholders ahead of a vote on its proposed plan on May 4.

Norwegian Air declined to comment on Friday.
 
Se la situazione della quarantena si sblocca, i primi voli prenoto un viaggio.
Non è più permesso il bagaglio da sistemare sopra le cappelliere a meno che no si acquista a 7 euro a tratta, per quanto riguarda il bagaglio a mano è diventata come la sua concorrente
 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willho...ecovery-if-it-avoids-bankruptcy/#2e6efa61d6d8


Norwegian Air’s Paradox: Strong COVID-19 Recovery, If It Avoids Bankruptcy

For once Norwegian Air Shuttle stands out for a good reason.

As Europe recovers from COVID-19, most airlines will confront a new problem: fuel hedging losses. They are locked into contracts expecting fuel to cost around $65/barrel. Instead it is $28 but they will have to pay their higher hedged amount, creating hedging losses upwards of $1 billion.

Norwegian Air? It’s the least hedged of European airlines by a wide margin, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Norwegian could win passengers with cheaper tickets and still come out ahead of competitors since its fuel bill will be lower. Fuel is often around one-third of costs for airlines, making it the largest variable expense.

But first Norwegian needs to survive, a matter more serious and less guaranteed than at its over-hedged peers.

Norwegian’s latest*rekonstruktion*is asking creditors to convert debt to equity. The mere concept stokes worries. Norwegian’s shares dropped 63% after announcing the plan. But it’s more intricate for Norwegian.

If creditors convert debt and Norwegian can raise equity to 8%, Norwegian can access further state loans – all up, NOK3 billion (US$291 million). That would leave Norwegian fragile but still in business.

Flying post-COVID brings Norwegian advantages. It is hedged 25% for the year at $571 per metric ton, well below peers. Home market competitor SAS is 65% hedged at $642. Besides fuel, Norwegian has overall lower costs than SAS – 76% cheaper, it calculates.

Fuel savings will offset the first 14% of revenue contraction at U.S. airlines, JP Morgan estimates. But they are unhedged. The more European airlines are hedged, the less buffer they will have to quickly rebuild finances. Norwegian comes out ahead, albeit comparatively.

As Norwegian restructures, it may rely on its original markets where it is better known and financial performance is strong. Norwegian gained wider attention for its global that did not come close to Norway or anywhere in Scandinavia: London to Rio de Janeiro, Rome to Los Angeles. Beyond Scandinavia, Norwegian still has favorable fuel costs.

Normally Ryanair’s unit costs are around a fifth cheaper than Norwegian. But that advantage will be offset since Ryanair is hedged around 90% at $600. Ryanair is taking an initial hedging loss of €300 million. Before the recent small recovery in oil price, Bloomberg did not rule out Ryanair having a €1 billion hedging loss for the year.

EasyJet will report a £175-185m fuel and foreign exchange loss in the six months to March 31, a period that captures little of fuel’s rapid fall. An annual loss could be around*£600m, Bloomberg estimates.

If Norwegian did hedge extensively, liquidity could be further depleted. Financial institutions could request cash collateral against expected hedging losses at weaker airlines, Moody’s*MCOsays.

European full-service airlines are also strongly hedged while U.S. airlines are not, giving a mixed environment if Norwegian strongly pursues trans-atlantic flying in the COVID-19 recovery period.

Long-haul is the question mark many hang over Norwegian. Its expansion with new – and costly – widebody 787s was fast and diverse, adding city-pairs previously unlinked or little served. Norwegian spread itself out, operating from multiple bases across Scandinavia and the rest of Europe.

Some dismiss Norwegian entirely, and point to numerous route reductions as evidence of a failed model. But it is not all-or-nothing. Some long-haul flight work, while others (and a brief foray in Argentina’s domestic market) do not. Norwegian’s operational and financial restructuring started*exceeding*market forecasts.

Norwegian may still have an unofficial vote of confidence from when IAG, the owner of airlines including British Airways and Iberia, made takeover bids of Norwegian at the height of its expansion.

Respected IAG and its astute CEO Willie Walsh would not chase a bad investment, one theory goes. *

As for being a worthy investment now, the financial market reckons creditors are giving serious consideration to the debt-to-equity plan, which shareholders will discuss at a May 4 meeting.

Banks and lessors top Norwegian’s creditors. TheIrish Times*could not get Aercap, which leases 11 aircraft to Norwegian, to comment on the plan.

Lessors could forgo debt-to-equity and repossess their aircraft, one argument goes. But that nearly guarantees they write-off any late lease payments. They will be stuck with an asset that will not be in high demand as aviation suffers from over-capacity in the near future.

The counter-argument might be that they have little to lose. They can hope lower fuel hedging lets Norwegian out-perform peers during recovery.
 
Norwegian Air could run out of cash by mid-May unless its proposed financial rescue plan is approved by creditors and shareholders, the budget carrier warned on Monday.

If approved by bondholders, leasing companies and shareholders, the plan may help Norwegian survive the coronavirus outbreak, which has grounded 95% of its fleet, leaving just 7 aircraft in operation.

But the planned debt-to-equity swap will hand majority ownership of 53.1% to the company's lessors, while bondholders would own 41.7%, leaving current shareholders with just 5.2%, it said.

The move would allow Norwegian to tap government guarantees of 2.7 billion crowns ($255 million), which are dependent on the company reducing its ratio of debt to equity, and which would come on top of 300 million crowns it has already received.

It is "critical to get access to the state aid package by mid-May before the company runs out of cash," Norwegian said in a presentation to investors.

Rapid growth has made Norwegian Europe's third-largest low-cost airline and the biggest foreign carrier serving New York and other major U.S. cities, but with the expansion came debts and liabilities of close to $8 billion by the end of 2019.

Last week, the company reported that four Swedish and Danish subsidiaries had filed for bankruptcy and that it had ended staffing contracts in Europe and the United States, putting some 4,700 jobs at risk.

Norwegian's shares opened 8% lower on Monday and are down 86% year-to-date.

The company aims to gradually emerge from the COVID-19 crisis with both a short-haul and long-haul network in place, and is targeting a return to normal operations in 2022, it said.

The plan requires backing from bondholders in each of four separate votes planned for April 30, from shareholders in an extraordinary general meeting scheduled for May 4, and from leasing firms.

It maintained plans to raise up to 400 million crowns in cash from owners.

https://www.marketscreener.com/NORW...t-of-cash-unless-debt-plan-approved-30477661/
 
Preso da un'altra fonte, la sostanza non cambia


ALERT Norwegian has warned main part of its fleet is likely to remain grounded for the next 12 months

Norwegian Air does not expect to begin ramping up its number of flights until April 2021 at the earliest, according to a proposal published ahead of a key stakeholder meeting this week.

Norwegian’s present low activity will continue, based on the support offered by the Norwegian authorities to maintain a minimum offer of air travel. During 2021, the company will step up operations, but a flight network resembling “normal operations” will not be resumed until 2022.

Norwegian Air Shuttle has warned that the bulk of its fleet is likely to remain grounded for the next 12 months and that a full recovery would not take place until 2022, laying bare the scale of the crisis engulfing the airline industry.

The airline announced a “significant change in fleet size with refinancing” would take place, to reduce costs and focus on profitable routes. Based on the current fleet and pending orders, Norwegian’s plan was for a fleet of 168 aircraft in 2020. That number will be reduced to between 110 and 120.

Unless the airline gets approval for its proposed rescue plan, it warned that it could run out of cash by mid-May.

 
Norwegian sets out survival plan and sounds warning on cash

By Cirium27 April 2020


Norwegian will run out of cash by mid-May if it does not secure the remainder of its state aid package, the Scandinavian budget carrier has warned in a report to bondholders which lays out plans for a “new Norwegian” that will not start to take off until 2021.
The airline is asking lessors to reduce its aircraft lease obligations by “at least” $500 million and convert debt into equity in a move that would eventually mean 53.1% of the carrier is owned by leasing companies and 41.7% by bondholders. Existing shareholders would hold just 5.2% of Norwegian’s stock if its survival plan is accepted by bondholders.
Norwegian says it will remain in a “hibernation phase” – in which 95% of its fleet is grounded and just seven aircraft are operating state-subsidised domestic operations only – until the second quarter of 2021, when a gradual ramp-up will begin.
It does not anticipate “normal operations” resuming until 2022, and the airline that emerges then will operate fewer aircraft and a “rightsized” network focused on the most profitable routes. The carrier forecasts that its fleet will reduce from 168 pre-Covid-19 aircraft to between 110 and 120 aircraft. The Nordic region will be the “cornerstone” of its operations and the airline says it will reduce capacity to match demand. Its long-haul network will focus on “top-tier cities” and “key flows” between the European Union and the USA.
The airline has already received NKr300 million ($28 million) in state funding from Norway’s government as part of a bailout package worth up to NKr3 billion. However, the carrier must satisfy a number of conditions before it can access the remainder. These conditions include existing creditors agreeing to a three-month moratorium on outstanding payments, and the company cutting its debt-to-equity ratio.
Norwegian has already outlined its debt-to-equity conversion plan and a bondholders meeting on the proposal is scheduled for 30 April. The airline anticipates signing an agreement with lessors on 3 May and an extraordinary general meeting for shareholders is planned for 4 May.
Norwegian has operating leases and sale-and-leaseback agreements in place with 24 lessors and its leased fleet is comprised of 62 Boeing 737-800s, four 737 Max 8s and 25 787s. Outstanding liabilities amount to NKr33.3 billion.
If all goes according to plan and Norwegian accesses all of the NKr 3 billion state aid package, this should be sufficient to cover liquidity needs until the end of this year, says the airline. However, its warns that there could still be a “need for additional funds” and says it needs to attract an outsider investor.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strate...lan-and-sounds-warning-on-cash/138095.article

 
belumosi ha detto:
Norwegian says it will remain in a “hibernation phase” – in which 95% of its fleet is grounded and just seven aircraft are operating state-subsidised domestic operations only – until the second quarter of 2021, when a gradual ramp-up will begin.
Quindi opereranno solo 7 a/m per i prossimi 12 mesi sulle rotte sovvenzionate dal governo.
Sostanzialmente in linea con quanto scriveva l'utente airblue.
 
Ciao ragazzi, sono rientrato, mi hanno cacciato dal forum perché mi sono comportato male col "compagno di giochi" :) cmq a quanto pare, da quello che hanno proposto in futuro si ritorna con flotta 100 120 macchine, lh dalle main cities etc etc etc. Aspettiamo il 4 maggio. Nel frattempo cassaintegrazione.
 
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