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787's first flight delayed
By JAMES WALLACE
P-I AEROSPACE REPORTER
First flight of The Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliner has slipped into October, the Seattle P-I has learned, and that delay will make it even more challenging and problematic to complete an aggressive flight-test program and get the new jet certified by regulators and delivered on time.
The further pushback of the first flight from the end of September is mainly a result of the complexity of installing and integrating various systems on the 787, people familiar with the matter said.
In particular, it is going to take more time than expected to get the critical flight-control systems and software up and running on the plane and "talking" with the other systems, these people said.
The first 787 was unveiled to the public July 8 at Boeing's Everett plant, but most of the systems had not been installed. Since then, Boeing has been focused on getting that plane ready for its maiden flight. Systems are being tested in labs around the clock, but that is not the same thing as having those systems all work together when they are finally installed on the plane.
Boeing Chairman and Chief Executive Jim McNerney had conceded last month that it was possible that the first flight could slip into October. But he also made it clear then that Boeing's goal was to get the Dreamliner flying by the end of September -- about a month later than originally planned.
"We feel we could still deliver the plane on time even if we pushed a little beyond (the end of September)," McNerney said during a conference call with analysts and media to discuss second-quarter earnings.
"But that's not the plan," he added. "The plan is to fly by the end of September."
It is not clear how far into October it will be before the 787 is ready to fly.
"We are talking about more than a few days," a source said Thursday.
Boeing would not confirm that the first flight is now scheduled for October. But the company did say it will meet its customer commitments.
The first 787 is supposed to be delivered to All Nippon Airways of Japan by the end of May. Some of the early Dreamliners will go to several Chinese airlines that want to use the 787 to fly passengers to the Olympic Games, which begin in China in early August 2008.
"We remain on schedule for entry into service in 2008," Boeing said in a statement Thursday when asked to comment for this story. "The pockets of behind-schedule condition vary. Since recovery plans are in place, our overall assessment is that we are on schedule."
If Boeing does not deliver the 787 on time, it likely would have to pay financial penalties to customers. Such language is typically written into order contracts. Airbus, for example, is two years late delivering its 525- passenger A380 because of production issues and has had to pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties to upset customers.
Boeing does not face those kinds of production problems on the 787. The problem for Boeing is that it has a limited window in which to accomplish the first flight and still have a reasonable shot at finishing the flight-test program in time to get the Dreamliner certified by the Federal Aviation Administration and delivered to All Nippon Airways on schedule.
Until last month, when McNerney disclosed the first flight had slipped to the end of September, Boeing had maintained that it hoped to complete it by the end of August or early September. McNerney acknowledged that the end of September was at the "back end" of the window Boeing faces.
If Boeing gets the Dreamliner off the ground by early October, it would have less than eight months to complete the 787 flight-test program to meet the May delivery date.
Boeing has always planned for that 787 flight-test program to be compressed. It took about 11 months to complete flight tests for Boeing's last new jet, the 777.
"No doubt we have a compressed flight-test schedule," McNerney said last month. "It's aggressive. But it hangs together. ... We think we can do it."
Industry analysts, however, are not so sure.
Several analysts who closely follow Boeing have predicted for months that it would not be able to deliver the first 787s by May.
But Wall Street does not appear to be very worried about a delay, as long as Boeing does not run into the kinds of production issues that Airbus faced with its A380. Delivery of that plane was delayed by wiring problems. The first A380 will be delivered in October to Singapore Airlines.
"I would not be too surprised or concerned to see something get pushed out a couple months," analyst J.B. Groh of D.A. Davidson & Co. said Thursday when asked about a possible delay in getting the 787 delivered on time. "Production issues like you saw with Airbus would be a major concern," he said. "But at this point, I don't see that happening."
A delay in delivering the first Dreamliner, Groh said, would be more of a concern if Boeing had only 150 orders for the plane. But Boeing has won nearly 700 firm orders for the 787, and that is before the plane has even flown. No jetliner developed by Boeing or Airbus has ever won more orders so quickly.
"The strength of this program is obvious," Groh said. "If it's just a matter of first flight getting pushed out and other things cascading as a result, that would not be a big deal."
Boeing shares fell $4.42 Thursday, or 4.3 percent, to $98.30, amid a broader market drop. They hit a record of $107.83 July 25.
787's first flight delayed
By JAMES WALLACE
P-I AEROSPACE REPORTER
First flight of The Boeing Co.'s 787 Dreamliner has slipped into October, the Seattle P-I has learned, and that delay will make it even more challenging and problematic to complete an aggressive flight-test program and get the new jet certified by regulators and delivered on time.
The further pushback of the first flight from the end of September is mainly a result of the complexity of installing and integrating various systems on the 787, people familiar with the matter said.
In particular, it is going to take more time than expected to get the critical flight-control systems and software up and running on the plane and "talking" with the other systems, these people said.
The first 787 was unveiled to the public July 8 at Boeing's Everett plant, but most of the systems had not been installed. Since then, Boeing has been focused on getting that plane ready for its maiden flight. Systems are being tested in labs around the clock, but that is not the same thing as having those systems all work together when they are finally installed on the plane.
Boeing Chairman and Chief Executive Jim McNerney had conceded last month that it was possible that the first flight could slip into October. But he also made it clear then that Boeing's goal was to get the Dreamliner flying by the end of September -- about a month later than originally planned.
"We feel we could still deliver the plane on time even if we pushed a little beyond (the end of September)," McNerney said during a conference call with analysts and media to discuss second-quarter earnings.
"But that's not the plan," he added. "The plan is to fly by the end of September."
It is not clear how far into October it will be before the 787 is ready to fly.
"We are talking about more than a few days," a source said Thursday.
Boeing would not confirm that the first flight is now scheduled for October. But the company did say it will meet its customer commitments.
The first 787 is supposed to be delivered to All Nippon Airways of Japan by the end of May. Some of the early Dreamliners will go to several Chinese airlines that want to use the 787 to fly passengers to the Olympic Games, which begin in China in early August 2008.
"We remain on schedule for entry into service in 2008," Boeing said in a statement Thursday when asked to comment for this story. "The pockets of behind-schedule condition vary. Since recovery plans are in place, our overall assessment is that we are on schedule."
If Boeing does not deliver the 787 on time, it likely would have to pay financial penalties to customers. Such language is typically written into order contracts. Airbus, for example, is two years late delivering its 525- passenger A380 because of production issues and has had to pay tens of millions of dollars in penalties to upset customers.
Boeing does not face those kinds of production problems on the 787. The problem for Boeing is that it has a limited window in which to accomplish the first flight and still have a reasonable shot at finishing the flight-test program in time to get the Dreamliner certified by the Federal Aviation Administration and delivered to All Nippon Airways on schedule.
Until last month, when McNerney disclosed the first flight had slipped to the end of September, Boeing had maintained that it hoped to complete it by the end of August or early September. McNerney acknowledged that the end of September was at the "back end" of the window Boeing faces.
If Boeing gets the Dreamliner off the ground by early October, it would have less than eight months to complete the 787 flight-test program to meet the May delivery date.
Boeing has always planned for that 787 flight-test program to be compressed. It took about 11 months to complete flight tests for Boeing's last new jet, the 777.
"No doubt we have a compressed flight-test schedule," McNerney said last month. "It's aggressive. But it hangs together. ... We think we can do it."
Industry analysts, however, are not so sure.
Several analysts who closely follow Boeing have predicted for months that it would not be able to deliver the first 787s by May.
But Wall Street does not appear to be very worried about a delay, as long as Boeing does not run into the kinds of production issues that Airbus faced with its A380. Delivery of that plane was delayed by wiring problems. The first A380 will be delivered in October to Singapore Airlines.
"I would not be too surprised or concerned to see something get pushed out a couple months," analyst J.B. Groh of D.A. Davidson & Co. said Thursday when asked about a possible delay in getting the 787 delivered on time. "Production issues like you saw with Airbus would be a major concern," he said. "But at this point, I don't see that happening."
A delay in delivering the first Dreamliner, Groh said, would be more of a concern if Boeing had only 150 orders for the plane. But Boeing has won nearly 700 firm orders for the 787, and that is before the plane has even flown. No jetliner developed by Boeing or Airbus has ever won more orders so quickly.
"The strength of this program is obvious," Groh said. "If it's just a matter of first flight getting pushed out and other things cascading as a result, that would not be a big deal."
Boeing shares fell $4.42 Thursday, or 4.3 percent, to $98.30, amid a broader market drop. They hit a record of $107.83 July 25.
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