AEA: Europe's airlines face 'paradigm shift'

[malpensante]

AEA: Europe's airlines face 'paradigm shift'

Friday October 9, 2009

Assn. of European Airlines warned that Europe's network carriers are facing not a "crisis" but "a paradigm shift with far-reaching and irrevocable consequences" as it forecast that its member airlines will post a combined full-year 2009 operating loss of €2.9 billion ($4.3 billion).
AEA noted that 34,000 European airline jobs will be lost by year end, the single biggest drop in employment on record. In a state of the industry presentation obtained by this website, the organization reported that the €2.9 billion operating loss will be in absolute terms the worst result ever recorded while the reversal from the €500 million operating profit achieved in 2008 will be the single biggest year-over-year decline on record absent extraordinary external incidents.
The passenger traffic market served by AEA member carriers has shrunk to its 2005 size, with 30 million fewer enplanements expected for the full year compared to 2008. Premium passengers are expected to be down 27% year-over-year on intra-European routes and 14% lower on long-haul routes. Cargo traffic is forecast to finish the year down 22% year-over-year.
AEA is calling for "urgent" short-term survival measures including a reduction or freeze of aviation-related charges and increasing access to credit to fund fleet renewal programs.
The European Commission reportedly today will attempt to obtain approval from the EU Council of Transport Ministers, who are meeting in Brussels, for a change of aircraft credit policy by the European Investment Bank to give it greater freedom to finance aircraft. EIB in the past invested in several aircraft renewal projects but in September 2007 decided to limit financing to "exceptional circumstances." It has said it requires political guidance from the EC before it can redirect its credit policy.

by Cathy Buyck
ATWOnline

 

[malpensante]

Europe's regional airlines report low traffic, yields

Friday October 9, 2009

European Regions Airline Assn., which represents 66 European carriers operating intra-Europe flights, recorded a collective drop in passenger traffic of 7.2% for the first six months of 2009.
ERA said demand improved slightly in the second quarter, but costs rose and yields were weak. "There may be signs of a slow recovery in some states, but overall traffic levels are still extremely depressed, while yields continue to reduce," DG Mike Ambrose said at the organization's AGM in Interlaken. "This is the worst year for commercial aviation since 1939. Since our last ERA AGM, 90 airlines failed, 40% of them in Europe."
More than 70% of Europe's regionals are reporting flat or negative growth, ERA said. Data from the first quarter show that average revenue per passenger lowered 12% year-over-year while average fuel costs were 6% higher.
"Many ERA airlines now face the dilemma of having the wrong aircraft size," Tyrolean Airways MD Manfred Helldoppler said, adding that 50-seat aircraft, whether CRJs, Dash 8-300s or ATR 42s, are too costly to operate on many regional routes. He said carriers are charging low fares as even business travelers are not willing to pay higher fares. "But these higher rates are necessary to operate smaller aircraft profitably," he said.

by Kurt Hofmann
ATWOnline

 

[diesel niner]

paradigm shift, come dire non c' e' e non ci sara' trippa per gatti; il mercato sara' solo delle LC? Personalmente ritengo ci sara' -fra alcuni anni - un giro della ruota e alcune LC faranno da feeder per alcune major.

 

[FlyIce]

paradigm shift, come dire non c' e' e non ci sara' trippa per gatti; il mercato sara' solo delle LC? Personalmente ritengo ci sara' -fra alcuni anni - un giro della ruota e alcune LC faranno da feeder per alcune major.

JetBlue ha già iniziato.
Il modello hub&spoke è più efficiente di quello p2p.

Penso che il "paradigm shift" sta a significare che non si saranno più pax disposti a pagare 700 € o più un A/R in Europa, nè in C nè tantomento in Y.
Questo trend era in atto da tempo, la crisi lo ha accentuato nettamente.

Gli yield che sono crollati potrebbero non rialzarsi mai più o ricrescere solo su tempi molto lunghi.
Non serve comunque essere dei fini analisti per capire questo: è piuttosto evidente.