Delta acquista una raffineria per mitigare i costi carburante [aggiornamenti]

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Delta to Buy ConocoPhillips Refinery for $180 Million

By Mary Jane Credeur and Edward Klump - May 1, 2012 5:01 AM GMT+0100

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)
is bringing some jet-fuel production in house, breaking with U.S. carriers’ reliance on outside providers, by
acquiring a refinery that Phillips 66 had targeted for shutdown.
The world’s second-biggest airline will pay $180 million for the complex in suburban Philadelphia, according to a statement yesterday. Pennsylvania’s state government is putting up $30 million in assistance to defray the expense.

Delta to Buy Conoco Refinery for $180 Million to Lock in Fuel

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Keyur Khamar/Bloomberg

A Delta Air Lines Inc. Airbus A319 jet (N371NB) at LaGuardia Airport in New York.

An airline-owned refinery is an experiment in the U.S. industry, said Ray Neidl, an airline analyst at Maxim Group LLC in New York. Atlanta-based Delta estimated the accord will save $300 million on its annual fuel bill, which was $11.8 billion last year, or about $32 million a day.
“Nothing ventured, nothing gained,” said Neidl, who has a buy rating on Delta shares. “Delta likes to try new things and I’m sure they studied this for months and ran the calculations. Nobody has done something quite like this before.”
Delta is buying the refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, through a subsidiary called Monroe Energy LLC, a nod to the airline’s original headquarters in Monroe, Louisiana. Trainer will add to earnings, boost margins and allow the airline to recoup its upfront investment in the first year, Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in the statement.
Delta fell 1.5 percent to $10.80 late yesterday in extended trading. Phillips 66 (PSX-W) begins trading today after the pipeline- and-refining company’s spinoff from Houston-based ConocoPhillips. The new company also will be based in Houston.

$100 Million Upgrade


Trainer can refine 185,000 barrels of crude per day, and Delta said it will spend $100 million to convert the refinery to maximize production of jet fuel, of which the airline consumed 3.86 billion gallons last year.
The plant had been idled for months, and without a buyer it would have been closed by the end of May because tighter profit margins are squeezing East Coast refineries. Sunoco Inc. (SUN) and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) are among companies also shutting or planning to sell refineries along the U.S. East Coast, in Europe and the U.S. Virgin Islands as oil prices rise and demand wanes.
BP Plc (BP/) will supply crude oil to be refined at the Trainer refinery, and Delta said it will exchange gasoline and other refined products for more jet fuel through multiyear agreements with BP and Phillips 66.
Delta estimates that refining costs account for $2.2 billion of its fuel bill, and those production-related expenses are the fastest growing at the airline, Chief Executive Officer Richard Anderson told reporters yesterday on a conference call.

Delta Fuel Access


The deal also will help ensure jet-fuel availability at important Delta hubs, including New York’s John F. Kennedy International and LaGuardia airports, Anderson said.
“We have had this matter under study for the better part of the year,” Anderson said. “It was clear we needed to exert much more control over the supply chain.”
Delta’s purchase was also “driven somewhat by the alarming rate of shutdowns” of refineries in the northeastern U.S., President Ed Bastian said.
Fuel accounted for 36 percent of Delta’s operating costs last year. Delta has hedged 70 percent of this quarter’s fuel needs pegged to prices at $3.05 to $3.40 a gallon, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Jet fuel for immediate delivery in New York Harbor rose 0.2 percent to $3.30 a gallon yesterday. The average price in 2012 before today was $3.23 a gallon, 6 percent more than for the same period a year earlier.

Profit Challenge


One challenge for Delta may be showing that it can operate the Trainer refinery more profitably than its previous owner did.
“You do have to question a little bit Delta management’s thought that they can run it better than ConocoPhillips,” said Kyle Cooper, director of research at Houston-based consultant IAF Advisors. “They’ve hopefully done their work and their analysis that says that this hedging cost is going to be lower than their current hedging cost.”
Cory Garcia, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in Houston, said letting the Trainer plant close might have been a better outcome for the oil industry, which is adding refining capacity outside the U.S.
“What you need to see is these less-profitable refineries come out of the market, shut down in order to rationalize or balance the overall supply-demand equation,” said Garcia, who rates ConocoPhillips (COP) as market perform.
Trainer will be run by Jeffrey Warmann, who has 25 years of experience in the industry, most recently as refinery manager for Murphy Oil USA Inc.’s plant in Meraux, Louisiana, Delta said.
Delta’s longer-term commitment is to invest $350 million at the facility, including acquisition costs, and keeping at least 402 full-time workers for five years from the date of occupancy, Steven Kratz, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Department of Community and Economic Development, wrote in an e-mail message.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ccord-to-acquire-conocophillips-refinery.html
 
Si, sicuramente una compagnia di navigazione danese... e LH compra prodotto fisico direttamente dal raffinatore e lo stocca su vagoni (qualche volta li ho visti sui binari per MUC).
 
Mah, oltre alla raffineria io comprerei direttamente qualche pozzo ...
Il grosso del prezzo del carburante non sono i costi di raffinazione: è il costo della materia prima, il petrolio.
 
Mah, oltre alla raffineria io comprerei direttamente qualche pozzo ...
Il grosso del prezzo del carburante non sono i costi di raffinazione: è il costo della materia prima, il petrolio.

Le raffinerie in particolare ultimamente soffrono i margini sempre minori, molto piu' degli altri partecipanti alla filiera dell'Oil & Gas. Per questo (ed altri motivi) ultimamente anche le grosse IOCs stanno disfandosi di molte raffinerie di loro proprieta'.
Credo evidentemente che Delta ritenga di essere riuscita a mettere le mani su questo asset ad un prezzo interessante.

Comunque sia questa operazione/esperimento e' una novita' assoluta perlomeno negli Stati Uniti. Staremo a vedere quanto riusciranno a risparmiare e quanti vantaggi a livello di supply chain riesca a portare.
Personalmente ritengo questa operazione di Delta molto interessante.
 
Concordo sull'interesse per l'operazione.
Se di successo potrebbe aprire scenari del tutto o in parte nuovi.
 
Primi dubbi sull'operazione

[h=1]Delta refinery yield estimates in question[/h]
Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines' plan to increase jet fuel yields to 32% of output at the Trainer oil refinery is meeting scepticism among those familiar with oil refining.

In a landmark deal for the airline industry, Delta announced that it would buy the idled plant outside Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for $180 million from Phillips in April. It plans to close the acquisition later this month.

The average yield of jet fuel was just 11% for refineries in the continental US in 2011, according to a US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released yesterday. Some refineries were able to produce yields of between 25% and 29% but only for a few months of the year.

The EIA says that Delta's yield predictions are "higher than was previously seen at Trainer and significantly above the average yield of jet fuel in any US refining region."

The carrier plans to achieve these yields by modifying and improving the existing equipment, and decreasing the output of other products by 18 percentage points from prior output levels, according to a regulatory filing in April.

Delta would have to use medium to light crude oil with up to 90% of the distillates refined into jet fuel to achieve its stated yields, says Flightglobal sister publication ICIS. They add that physical improvements to the plant alone could not achieve a 32% yield.

"I believe [Delta] is being a little too optimistic in its estimates," says ICIS.

The airline declines to comment on its yield estimates.

Delta has stated that it would invest around $100 million in upgrades to the facility, which will be operated and maintained by its newly-created Monroe Energy subsidiary.

Ed Bastian, president of Delta, said that the airline hopes to supply up to 80% of its domestic jet fuel needs as a result of the purchase, at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch global transportation conference in Boston last month. This would result in about $300 million in annual savings to the airline's fuel bill.

"The refinery is a bold idea," he added.

The purchase has had a mixed reception from the financial community. Moody's Investor Services said that the deal poses "potentially significant operating and financial risks" and deemed it a credit negative in a comment last month. Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings each noted that it poses some risks but would not affect Delta's credit rating in the near term.

The deal benefits from $30 million in job creation and infrastructure development financing from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/delta-refinery-yield-estimates-in-question-372990/
 
Re: Delta acquisterà una raffineria da ConocoPhillips per mitigare i costi carburante

La raffineria continua a deludere, anche se in parte a causa di fattori esterni (es.: l'uragano Sandy dello scorso autunno).

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...-well-below-targets-at-delta-refinery-385970/

La raffineria cercherà di migliorare l'economia degli approvvigionamenti acquistando sempre più petrolio Bakken, meno costoso del prodotto africano attualmente pagato leggermente più del Brent.
 
Re: Delta acquisterà una raffineria da ConocoPhillips per mitigare i costi carburante

Per ovvi motivi non posso entrare nei dettagli ma fate conto che, in media, tener ferma una colonna di distillazione costa circa 1 milione di euro al giorno. Sarebbe interessante capire, se questo jet fuel anzichè prodotto in house fosse acquistato sul mercato, quanto Delta potrebbe "perdere" in caso di errorri nell'hedging.


PS: acquistare petrolio diverso da quello per cui si è progettato l'impianto vuol dire rifare quasi tutti i calcoli della curva di distillazione, poveri ingegneri di processo!
 
Re: Delta acquisterà una raffineria da ConocoPhillips per mitigare i costi carburante

PS: acquistare petrolio diverso da quello per cui si è progettato l'impianto vuol dire rifare quasi tutti i calcoli della curva di distillazione, poveri ingegneri di processo!

Non sono un esperto ma credo che proprio in questo ostacolo si fondino tutti i problemi dell'industria della raffinazione nel Nordest americano: mentre le raffinerie del sud, in particolare quelle della zona di Houston, sono già capaci di gestire greggio di diverse provenienze - dal WTI più puro al greggio più sporco del Canada settentrionale, le raffinerie di Philadelphia e Newark sono impianti più vecchi e ancora vincolati all'acquisto di greggio di facile raffinazione. Delta è riuscita anche in funzione di questo a rilevare l'impianto di Trainer da Conoco Phillips - forse è inevitabile un investimento infrastrutturale consistente per consentire migliori economie nell'approvvigionamento della materia prima. Spero di non aver scritto sciocchezze.
 
Non e' cosi' facile infatti e al momento DL sta ancora cercando di rendere l'investimento utile ad un risparmio sul fuel cost:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...rude-to-pennsylvania-refinery.html?cmpid=yhoo

un breve stralcio:

The Atlanta-based airline signed a five-year agreement with Addison, Texas-based midstream company Bridger LLC to supply the Trainer, Pennsylvania, refinery with 65,000 barrels of crude a day, more than a third of the plant’s capacity.
Delta is hoping that greater use of domestic crude will help it turn a profit at the refinery, which it bought from ConocoPhillips in 2012 in an attempt to control prices and supplies for its fleet.
“We definitely believe domestic crude will be competitive versus foreign alternatives,” Graeme Burnett, Delta’s senior vice president for fuel optimization, said by phone July 18.
 
Monroe’s Trainer refinery profit

Delta invested in the Trainer refinery to reduce fuel price. It was profitable in 3Q14. In 2Q14, it reported its first profits since 2012.

For more details on the refinery impact refer to “Delta’s unique strategy: Owning a refinery to contain fuel costs.”

In 3Q14, the refinery segment’s profit was $19 million—$16 million higher than in 3Q13. This had a positive impact on average fuel price per gallon.

During the quarter, the refinery processed 100,000 barrels per day (or bpd). The estimate is to achieve an average of 70,000 bpd for 2014 and 100,000 bpd for 2015. Management projects the 4Q14 profit from refinery to be $20 million. It expects the fuel price per gallon—including the refinery and hedge impact—to be $2.69–$2.74.
 
Visto che questo esperimento di Delta di acquistare una raffineria e produrre in proprio il carburante sembra dopo un avvio iniziale stia andando bene, pensate che possa essere seguito da altre grandi compagnie aeree?
 
Il petrolio sta andando giù come prezzi e molte raffinerie fanno fatica a sopravvivere. Inoltre stanno costruendo un sacco di raffinerie per il biofuel, incluse un paio in Italia.
 
Visto che questo esperimento di Delta di acquistare una raffineria e produrre in proprio il carburante sembra dopo un avvio iniziale stia andando bene, pensate che possa essere seguito da altre grandi compagnie aeree?

Le variabili sono così tante che nessuno - a meno di non aver accesso a dati riservati - potrà mai risponderti ;)
 
Il petrolio sta andando giù come prezzi e molte raffinerie fanno fatica a sopravvivere. Inoltre stanno costruendo un sacco di raffinerie per il biofuel, incluse un paio in Italia.

Le raffinerie faranno fatica perchè i consumi sono crollati, non tanto per il prezzo del petrolio...

Eppure proprio nel 3Q14 hanno avuto il miglior risultato, con prezzi e consumi entrambi al ribasso; forse hanno trovato il giusto equilibrio?
 
Eppure proprio nel 3Q14 hanno avuto il miglior risultato, con prezzi e consumi entrambi al ribasso; forse hanno trovato il giusto equilibrio?

Bisognerebbe sapere cosa raffinano, in che quantità, a chi la vendono ed il costo/provenienza geografica della materia prima utilizzata.
 
Ma quindi come funziona? si comprano gli stock di greggio, se li portano alla loro raffineria e poi redistribuiscono il JetA1 nei varii aeroporti (quantomeno in USA)???