Lufthansa rinnova il lungo raggio: in arrivo 779X e A359


FlyKing

Moderatore
Utente Registrato
14 Aprile 2011
6,080
362
Genova - LIMJ
Bloomberg riporta che la prossima settimana ci sarà l'annuncio ufficiale per il grande ordine di 50 wb (valore stimato, 14 miliardi) che LH medita da tempo. Come nella migliore recente tradizione, sarà uno "split order" con circa 30 779 e 20 A359, che andranno a sostituire l'attuale flotta A340. Per questioni di range e MTOW il 7810 sembra fuori gara, ma non ci resta che attendere l'ufficialità della notizia per scoprirlo.

Lufthansa Said to See Boeing-Airbus Split on Jet Order
By Richard Weiss, Julie Johnsson & Robert Wall - Sep 13, 2013 10:02 AM PT

Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) will split an order for about 50 wide-body aircraft between Airbus SAS and Boeing Co. (BA), a purchase with a list value of at least $14 billion, people with knowledge of the matter said.
The twin-engine jets will be Boeing’s new 777-9X, which is due to fly by decade’s end, and Airbus’s A350-900, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t yet public. An announcement may come as soon as next week, the people said.
Enlarge image Lufthansa Said to See Boeing-Airbus Split on $14 Billion of Jets
An aircraft operated by Deutsche Lufthansa AG, left, takes off alongside a tail fin displaying the company's logo at Frankfurt airport. Photographer: Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg
Dividing the deal provides a boost for both planemakers after Cologne, Germany-based Lufthansa had said the order would be a winner-take-all contest. Lufthansa hasn’t bought 777s for its own passenger operations before, and has previously relied heavily on jets from Toulouse, France-based Airbus.
Lufthansa, Europe’s second-largest airline, now uses four-engine Airbus A340-300s and A340-600s for some long-haul routes. The carrier ordered 108 planes in May, including 100 Airbus A320 narrow-bodies, in a transaction with a catalog value of about $12.4 billion. Airlines typically buy at a discount.
Boeing jets will make up a majority of the order, said one of the people.
“No fleet decision has yet been taken by the Lufthansa supervisory board,” Thomas Jachnow, a Lufthansa spokesman, said today by telephone. Any announcement will follow the board’s approval of management’s fleet recommendation, he said.
Stefan Schaffrath, an Airbus spokesman, and Doug Alder of Chicago-based Boeing declined to comment.
New Engines
With the 777X, Lufthansa will become the first purchaser for the new model, the people said. The 777, the world’s biggest twin-engine airliner, will feature new engines on the X variant and the largest wing ever on a Boeing plane to help improve performance.
The wide-body order will surpass the May purchase and be Lufthansa’s largest ever, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified.
A precise deal value couldn’t immediately be determined, because of the lack of specifics on which planes are in the order and on what Boeing will charge for 777X once the jet’s development gets final approval. It will be bigger and more expensive than the current 777, whose largest variant lists for $320.2 million. Airbus offers the A350-900 for $287.7 million.
 
Mi lascia un po' perplesso lo split, immagino dettato anche dalla volontà di mantenere ottimi rapporti con entrambi i costruttori. Sicuramente LH più ancora di altri, si avvantaggerà di un grande risparmio nei costi del carburante.

NB L'ala del 779 è davvero splendida, a mio avviso fa sembrare quella del 359 già vecchia...
 
Ultima modifica:
Mi lascia un po' perplesso lo split, immagino dettato anche dalla volontà di mantenere ottimi rapporti con entrambi i costruttori. Sicuramente LH più ancora di altri, si avvantaggerà di un grande risparmio nei costi del carburante.
Con tutti quei A340 sicuramente LH avrà un grande vantaggio a passare a nuovi bimotori.
Poi si vociferava anche di una corta carriera come aerei pax dei B748i.
 
Lufthansa, il più importante cliente di Airbus tra le compagnie aeree, sottoscrive un impegno fino a 55 aeromobili A350
L’A350 giocherà un ruolo fondamentale nella strategia di rinnovo della flotta a lungo raggio del vettore
Il Consiglio di Supervisione di Lufthansa, il più importante cliente e operatore di aeromobili Airbus tra le compagnie aeree, ha deciso di ampliare e ammodernare la flotta a lungo raggio con un impegno d’acquisto fino a 55 aeromobili A350-900 (di cui 25 in ordine fermo e 30 in opzione). Nell’ambito dell’accordo Lufthansa potrà convertire parte dell’ordine alla versione A350-1000.Questo importante ordine per l’A350 segue la decisione strategica assunta da Lufthansa sei mesi fa di utilizzare solo aeromobili Airbus nella propria flotta a corridoio singolo. Fino ad oggi nel corso del 2013 Airbus ha ricevuto il maggior numero di ordini fermi (125) in un singolo anno da Lufthansa rispetto a qualsiasi anno precedente. Prendendo in considerazione tutti gli impegni di acquisto (ordini fermi e opzioni) il numero raggiunge i 232 aeromobili – uno in più rispetto ai 231 aeromobili attualmente presenti nella sola flotta Lufthansa.“L’A350 XWB risponde perfettamente alle esigenze della nostra rete di collegamenti sia in termini di dimensioni sia di autonomia e giocherà un ruolo chiave nell’ammodernamento della nostra flotta riducendo nel contempo i costi operativi e il nostro impatto sull’ambiente”, ha dichiarato Nico Buchholz, Executive Vice President, Lufthansa Group Fleet Management. “Questi aeromobili particolarmente silenziosi ed eco efficienti si integreranno perfettamente nella nostra attuale flotta Airbus. Dall’A319 all’A380, Lufthansa beneficerà delle più moderne tecnologie, di elevati livelli di efficienza, di una cabina più ampia, di flessibilità operativa, e di risparmi – oltre che dei vantaggi assicurati dalla communalità offerta dalla flotta Airbus”.La decisione presa oggi conferma lo status di Lufthansa quale più importante cliente di Airbus tra le compagnie aeree con 535 aeromobili ordinati a oggi e 397 attualmente presenti in flotta presso le compagnie del Gruppo. Tra questi ultimi vi sono: 282 aeromobili della famiglia A320, 42 A330, 63 A340, 10 A380. Lufthansa ha recentemente annunciato un ordine per 100 aeromobili A320 per convertire la propria flotta di aeromobili a corridoio singolo tra i 150 e i 230 posti esclusivamente con velivoli Airbus. L’A350 XWB (Extra Wide Body) è il nuovissimo aeromobile di medie dimensioni sviluppato da Airbus per il lungo raggio che comprende tre versioni con una capacità che va da 270 a 350 passeggeri in una configurazione tipica a tre classi. La nuova Famiglia, la cui sezione di fusoliera è ottimizzata per ospitare le poltrone Airbus di classe economica da 18 pollici volte ad offrire maggiore comfort ai passeggeri sulle tratte a lungo raggio, porterà un cambiamento radicale in termini di efficienza rispetto agli aeromobili esistenti della stessa categoria, assicurando una riduzione del 25% sia dei consumi di carburante sia delle emissioni di CO2. Con un ingresso in servizio previsto per il 2014, ad oggi l’A350 XWB ha raccolto 682 ordini fermi da 35 clienti.
 
Nonostante le enormi pressioni politiche, LH tagli i ponti col passato e si affida a Boeing per il backbone della sua futura flotta a LR. Ad Airbus rimane l'ovvio contentino politico.
 
O forse, più semplicemente, i 359 andranno a sostituire i 343 e i 779X i 747/346. Senza contare l'opzione di ulteriori 30 A350, 25+30=55.
 
Più semplicemente l'A350-1000 fatica ad arrivare a competere con il B779X,é una questione di sovrapposizione.
 
Più semplicemente l'A350-1000 fatica ad arrivare a competere con il B779X,é una questione di sovrapposizione.

L'A351 ha dei limiti in termini di capienza pax; Airbus ha deciso di eliminare l'opzione del quinto portellone per lato, decisione che preclude, di fatto, il segmento >440 pax. Per una compagnia che cerca una macchina con caratteristiche di capienza nell'ordine dei 500 pax non ci sono alterative twin engine percorribili.
 
Lufthansa è uno dei vettori che ha lavorato a più stretto contatto con Boeing al 787-10: da subito - a quanto si leggeva nelle riviste di settore - avevano spinto per uno stretch semplice che sacrificasse il raggio per avere più payload. Di recente era stata riportata da più parti la notizia che a LH non era piaciuto questo 787-10, costruito più per le esigenze di raggio e MTOW dei vettori asiatici e mediorientali che per quelle di LH. Non credo, insomma, che il 350-900 sia un ordine prettamente politico: evidentemente è una macchina valida per sostituire i 340-300, non solo per raggio e capacità, ma anche per una certa economia nella transizione degli equipaggi.
Il 777-9 venderà certamente molto: personalmente ritengo che Boeing abbia sbagliato a dare la precedenza al 787-10, lanciandolo in un momento sfortunato il progetto 787, e con una tale quantità di ordini in backlog da non poter comunque consegnare niente per molti anni. Secondo molti analisti il problema era proprio quello: Boeing conta di liberare slot di consegna (e quindi opportunità di vendita) per il 787-9, già in produzione, inducendo qualche cliente come ANA ed Etihad a convertire una parte degli ordini per la serie -9 in serie -10. Non so se questa strategia pagherà, ma intanto ha consentito al 350-1000 di raccogliere ordini da clienti che più di una volta avevano indicato premura e interesse per il 777-9X. Per motivi di tempo - essendo il 777-9 in ritardo rispetto al 350-1000 - credo che Boeing perderà qualche opportunità.
 
The aim is to reduce the number of different models and fleet complexity in the Passenger Airline Group segment and also replace existing aircraft with state-of-the-art aeroplanes. Following the aircraft order already placed in March of this year, the Group currently has a total of 295 brand-new aircraft on order with a list value of EUR 36bn. These should be delivered by 2025.
Numeri comunque impressionanti
 
[h=1]Lufthansa’s new widebody order sends signals to rivals and to manufacturers[/h]

lufthansa_logo_1-200x.png

Lufthansa’s order for Airbus A350 and Boeing 777X aircraft is a reminder that it is still a major long-haul carrier and that there are two manufacturers. In Feb-2013, Lufthansa ordered 100 A320 family aircraft, signalling an eventual move to an all-Airbus short-haul fleet. Since then, its transfer of short/medium-haul non-hub traffic to Germanwings has been a major focus and rival IAG has also announced significant orders. Lufthansa has now restored its position as Europe’s leading buyer of widebodies, adding to the pressure onAir France-KLM in particular.
On 19-Sep-2013, Lufthansa announced the purchase of 59 new long-haul aircraft for delivery between 2016 and 2025, consisting of 34 Boeing 777-9Xs and 25 Airbus A350-900s. It also negotiated options and purchase rights for an additional 30 of each type. The order will allow it to replace its older widebodies and to pursue modest long-haul growth from 2016. Multi-billion dollar orders are not without risk, but Lufthansa’s cautious approach, together with its balance sheet and track record of cash generation, should help to secure financing.

[h=2]295 aircraft orders, 92 widebodies, ahead of its rivals[/h]At list prices, the value of Lufthansa's order is EUR14 billion, but the carrier has negotiated “substantial discounts”. As is usual with orders of this kind, it has not disclosed the magnitude of these discounts. Together with existing orders, the new order brings the number of aircraft on order for the Lufthansa Group to 295 (of which 92 are for widebodies), for delivery between 2013 and 2025. This includes 203 narrowbodies and regional aircraft (see table below). At list prices, the total value of the 295 orders is EUR36 billion.
The new order now puts Lufthansa ahead of rivals IAG and Air France-KLM in long-haul and total aircraft orders. IAG has 167 aircraft orders (of which 86 widebody) and Air France-KLM has 65 (of which 59 widebody). This increases the pressure on Air France-KLM, particularly as its delivery schedule sees only single digit numbers of widebody deliveries until the latter end of this decade, whereas both Lufthansa and IAG should receive somewhere in the region of 20 aircraft per year throughout the decade. This puts the Franco-Dutch group at a disadvantage to its two biggest long-haul rivals both in terms of fleet renewal and growth options.
See related reports:

Lufthansa aircraft deliveries 2013-2025
Aircraft type
Number
Airbus A380
4
Boeing 747-8i
15
Airbus A330
3
Boeing 777-300ER
6
Boeing 777F
5
Boeing 777-9x
34
Airbus A350-900
25
Total wide-body
92
Airbus A320 family
169
Embraer 195
4
Bombardier C Series
30
Total narrow-body
203
Total orders
295

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and Lufthansa
[h=2]Replacement and growth[/h]At the end of 2012, Lufthansa Passenger Airlines (Lufthansa Passage, Germanwings, Lufthansa CityLine, Air Dolomiti and Eurowings) had a total of 433 aircraft in its fleet, while the group fleet (including SWISS, Austrian and Lufthansa Cargo) totalled 194. Lufthansa Passenger Airlines’ plan is to keep the total fairly stable until 2015, with new deliveries exclusively used to replace older aircraft at a rate of around 20 each year during this initial period.
Previously announced orders allow it to continue this replacement rate, but with no growth. From 2016 to 2025, its base case is to grow the total fleet at half the market rate of growth, or around 2% per annum. This growth path is not changed by the new orders, but they now provide the detail of how it will be achieved.
Lufthansa Passenger Airlines illustrative fleet growth to 2025
LH1.PNG

Source: Lufthansa

Focusing on Lufthansa’s long-haul fleet, it currently has 107 aircraft in service (excluding SWISS and Austrian, which add a further 43 to the group’s widebody fleet). Its total long-haul order of 203 aircraft will allow it to maintain a broadly stable number of widebodies until 2016, with A380 and Boeing 747-8 deliveries replacing older Boeing 747-400s and A340-300s that leave the fleet. According to the CAPA Fleet Database, its current 747 fleet is aged between around 12 and 24 years and its A340-300 fleet between 12 and 20 years.
Lufthansa Group widebody fleet: 18-Sep-2013
Aircraft type
Lufthansa
SWISS
Austrian
Group
A380
10
10
747-8
9
9
747-400
22
22
A330
18
18
36
A340
48
13
2
63
767
6
6
777
4
4
Total
107
31
12
150

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Lufthansa
From 2016 to 2025, its basic scenario assumes that Lufthansa will grow its long-haul business at 3% per annum, but it also considered alternative scenarios of 1% or 5%. It has flexibility to change its fleet growth path, either through earlier retirement of existing aircraft or through exercising purchase options (which include the option to convert the A350 order to the larger A350-1000). Under the basic scenario, it will use 30 of the 59 aircraft in the new order for replacement and the remaining 29 for growth.
Lufthansa Passenger Airlines development of long-haul fleet to 2025*
LH6.PNG

*basic scenario of 3% per annum growth
Source: Lufthansa

[h=2]Lufthansa group aircraft types reduce from eight to six[/h]The fleet plan sees the number of aircraft types in the group’s long-haul fleet reduce from eight today to six in 2025. Lufthansa itself will see a reduction from six to four types. Boeing 747-400s, A340-600s, A340-300s (also currently operated by SWISS), Boeing 777-200ERs (currently operated by Austrian) and Boeing 767-300ERs (Austrian) will all disappear from the fleet. Entering the fleet will be A350-900s, Boeing 777-9Xs and Boeing 777-300ERs (six are on order for SWISS). New long-haul aircraft for Austrian have yet to be decided.
Lufthansa says that the 59 new aircraft just ordered will consume 2.9 litres of jet fuel per 100 passenger kilometres, which is around 25% less than aircraft available today, and that unit costs will fall by around 20% versus predecessor models. It also says that the noise footprint will be at least 30% lower than today’s aircraft.
Lufthansa fleet types: 2013 and 2025
LH5.PNG

Source: Lufthansa, Sep-2013

[h=2]Cabin upgrades continue[/h]In parallel to its orders for new aircraft, Lufthansa is continuing with its fleet refurbishment programme. Initiatives include upgrading its first class and business class cabins, new seats in economy and new terminal facilities.
By contrast with the multi-billion euro cost of new aircraft orders, the costs of the refurbishment programme are in the hundreds of millions of euros.
Lufthansa product upgrades
LH2.PNG

Source: Lufthansa

[h=2]New aircraft deployment[/h]In terms of routes where Lufthansa plans to deploy its new aircraft, it has segmented its markets according to size and the proportion of premium passengers.
The A380 and Boeing 747-8 will replace the Boeing 747-400 on high volume markets where premium passengers account for more than 10% of the total. An example of this is Frankfurt to Shanghai. On routes in this category that are not among the very highest volume routes, Lufthansa will switch from A340-600s to the Boeing 777-9X (e.g. Munich-Shanghai).
On high volume markets with a lower share of premium passengers, the Boeing 777-9X in a two-class configuration will replace Boeing 747-400s (e.g. Frankfurt-Bangkok).
Lufthansa will deploy the A350-900 on medium-sized markets with less than 10% premium passengers and on niche markets with more than 10% premium passengers. Examples of these two categories are Frankfurt to Vancouver and Frankfurt to Malabo respectively. Lufthansa also expects to deploy the A350 in a two-class configuration on niche routes from other group hubs such as Vienna, Zurich and Düsseldorf, where there is a good level of business passengers.
Example markets for the deployment of Lufthansa’s new long-haul aircraft
Market type
Expected segment growth by 2018
Example route
Aircraft type today
Aircraft type in future
High-volume markets, premium > 1.2m passengers p.a. Percentage First / Business Class > 10%
+8 million pax
Frankfurt – Shanghai
Munich – Shanghai
A380/B747-400
A340-600
A380/B747-8
B 777-9X
High-volume markets > 1.2m passengers p.a. Percentage First / Business Class < 10%
+4 million pax
Frankfurt –Bangkok
B 747-400
B 777-9X 2 classes
Medium-sized markets 1.2 – 0.35m passengers p.a. Percentage First / Business Class < 10%
+5 million pax
Frankfurt – Vancouver
A340-600
A350-900
Niche markets, Premium < 0.35m passengers p.a.
Percentage First / Business Class > 10%
+1 million pax
Frankfurt – Malabo
A330-300
A350-900

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and Lufthansa, Sep-2013
[h=2]Aircraft financing should not be a problem[/h]Lufthansa plans to fund the new aircraft order with a combination of internally generated cash flow and external funding. CFO Simone Menne told analysts on a conference call to discuss the order that she had no concerns regarding aircraft financing. She did not give further details, but said that EETCs were not currently being considered as they are “too expensive” for Lufthansa.
Lufthansa has a solid balance sheet and is one of only three investment grade-rated airlines in the world, according to Ms Menne, which positions it well in terms of funding its investments in fleet and other assets. Around 90% of its fleet is owned, rather than leased, and more than 70% is financially unburdened (i.e. it has not been offered as security for financing transactions). This adds to its flexibility in considering financing options for its aircraft orders.
Lufthansa fleet that is owned and financially unburdened
LH4.PNG

Source: Lufthansa, Sep-2013

[h=2]Capex typically is covered by cash flow[/h]The group’s annual capital expenditure guidance already anticipated the order and so remains unchanged. Capex will rise a little in the coming years, but this had already been communicated and continues a gradually increasing trend over the past decade.
According to Ms Menne, capex will be EUR2.6 billion in 2013, EUR3 billion in 2014 and a little more than EUR3 billion in 2015. From then until 2015, she expects the group’s capex to average around EUR3 billion annually, in a range of EUR2.5 billion to EUR3.5 billion.
Lufthansa group capital expenditure (EUR million): 2003 to 2012 and guidance 2013 to 2025
LH7.PNG

*expected to be in a range of EUR2.5 billion to EUR3.5 billion in 2016-2025
Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and Lufthansa

Lufthansa has developed a strong track record of cash flow generation, with operating cash flow almost always exceeding its capital expenditure over the past decade. When disposal proceeds and investment income are added to operating cash flow, the group’s total cash inflow has been greater than its investments every year since 2003. This suggests that its planned higher levels of capex should be affordable from its own cash flows and, if not, it should not be too onerous to add external sources of funding.
Lufthansa group capital expenditure, operating cash flow and disposal proceeds/investment income (EUR million): 2003 to 2012
LH8.PNG

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation and Lufthansa

[h=2]The Lufthansa orders send strong signals to manufacturers and to rivals[/h]In ordering from both Boeing and Airbus, Lufthansa has chosen to avoid becoming dependent on one manufacturer for its long-haul needs. Earlier this year, it had signalled that it would meet its future short/medium-haul needs though Airbus alone. After initially considering buying narrowbodies from both manufacturers, Lufthansa’s Supervisory Board approved the purchase of 30 A320ceo and authorised the Executive Board to continue with negotiations for 70 A320neo.
It did, at that time, also order six Boeing 777-300ERs for SWISS, but Lufthansa is Airbus’ largest airline customer and may have been tempted to use its leverage with Toulouse to place the bulk of its new widebody order with the European company.
That it now has considerably more long-haul orders with Boeing than with Airbus both suggests that Boeing offered attractive terms and demonstrates that Lufthansa can order in sufficient quantities to operate a mixed fleet, choosing aircraft to match different markets.
The order is also a signal to Lufthansa’s rivals that it intends to maintain its leadership position in the European long-haul markets.
 
Intanto:

Airbus A340 -311 24 D-AIGB Lufthansa ferried 28oct13 FRA-BGR-TUP for part-out & scrap ex F-WWJO
 
Sul sito di Boeing è stato aggiunto un ordine per 20 per i 777 da parte di LH; si pensa che questi siano, in effetti, gli ordini fermi per il 9X, e 14 siano opzioni, il che fa presagire una situazione diametralmente opposta a quella inizialmente prospettata (meno ordini per Boeing che per Airbus)