MEB3 and Turkish Airlines grow in Africa at Europe’s big airlines’ expense

[kenyaprince]

[h=1]MEB3 and Turkish Airlines grow in Africa at Europe’s big airlines’ expense[/h]

The Gulf carriers (the ‘MEB3’) and Turkish Airlines are on a clear expansion course in Sub-Saharan Africa, while Europe’s big airlines seem to rearrange their networks to the African continent. Qatar Airways’ latest African destination is Kilimanjaro where it takes on KLM, which serves the Tanzanian airport from Amsterdam.

As many of Europe’s economies are experiencing challenging times, it could be expected that the region’s big airline groups to a greater extent would turn to high-yield markets such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa that for long have been characterised by limited competition and in many cases weak competition from local African carriers.
However, anna.aero’s analysis shows that Europe’s three big airline groups have made little change in overall capacity to Sub-Saharan Africa in the last year. The airlines have instead made considerable changes within their African networks and clear shifts in African network strategy can be seen between the individual airlines within each group.
[TABLE="class: post-table"]
[TR]
[TH][/TH]
[TH]Seats Sep 2012[/TH]
[TH]Seats Sep 2011[/TH]
[TH]% change[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air France[/TD]
[TD]273,176[/TD]
[TD]278,819[/TD]
[TD]-2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KLM[/TD]
[TD]139,742[/TD]
[TD]147,234[/TD]
[TD]-5%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air France-KLM[/TD]
[TD]412,918[/TD]
[TD]426,053[/TD]
[TD]-3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]British Airways[/TD]
[TD]154,710[/TD]
[TD]155,483[/TD]
[TD]0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Iberia[/TD]
[TD]35,601[/TD]
[TD]31,838[/TD]
[TD]12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]IAG[/TD]
[TD]190,311[/TD]
[TD]187,321[/TD]
[TD]2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lufthansa[/TD]
[TD]84,002[/TD]
[TD]90,734[/TD]
[TD]-7%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swiss[/TD]
[TD]25,952[/TD]
[TD]33,504[/TD]
[TD]-23%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brussels Airlines[/TD]
[TD]83,712[/TD]
[TD]75,544[/TD]
[TD]11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lufthansa Group[/TD]
[TD]193,666[/TD]
[TD]199,782[/TD]
[TD]-3%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: post-table-caption, colspan: 4"]Source: SRS Analyser[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The group with the largest presence in Sub-Sahran Africa is Air France-KLM. Both of the group’s airlines have made considerable changes to their African networks in the last year. KLM has added new routes to Luanda and Lusaka, but the airlines have also made several cut-backs. For example, both airlines have downsized aircraft, reducing capacity considerably, on their routes to Lagos in Nigeria. Further examples include Air France’s capacity to N’Djamena in Chad being cut by a third, but this reduction is nearly compensated for by the four additional flights a week to Lomé in Togo. There has also been internal move, with KLM dropping its Abuja flights in favour of its parent Air France’s new service to the Nigerian capital.
In Lufthansa Group, the biggest reduction has been in Swiss’ network because of the airline dropping its Douala route, but, in real terms, Brussels Airlines’ strong capacity boost in the African market more than compensates for the Swiss sister airline’s reduction. However, in spite of the airline trebling capacity to Khartoum, Lufthansa has also reduced overall, much because of its dropped route to Addis Ababa and 40% capacity drop to Accra. Lufthansa now offers similar capacity to Sub-Saharan Africa as Brussels Airlines, which is continuing to grow strongly in its key African market.
While British Airways has made minor capacity increases to Entebbe and Johannesburg, the airline has cut capacity to Dar Es Salaam and Luanda by 25% and 10% respectively. Meanwhile, its sister carrier Iberia has increased its Sub-Saharan capacity considerably, having launched new routes to Luanda, Accra and Nouakchott. Iberia is also boosting services to Lagos by 30% and Dakar by 15%; however, the airline dropped its Johannesburg route in April. Iberia’s overall impact on IAG’s capacity to Sub-Saharan Africa is, however, so limited that the airline group’s growth in the market is only 2%.
[h=2]Capacity boom happening further east[/h] The airlines to see the most opportunities in growing their networks to Sub-Saharan Africa rather seem to be the more dynamic ‘new’ airlines in the Persian Gulf (that we at anna.aero refer to as the MEB3 – the Middle East Big 3) as well as Europe’s upcomer Turkish Airlines, which shares many traits with these carriers. These airlines’ geographical location also make them suitable for attracting traffic both from Europe and Asia, of which the latter region is known for generating a particularly strong growth in demand for Africa.
These airlines’ combined capacity to Sub-Saharan Africa has grown at such fast pace that it now amounts nearly 80% of the capacity offered to the region by the three big European airline groups above.

Source: SRS Analyser for September 2012 vs September 2011

Etihad has more than doubled its capacity to Africa in the last year, having introduced new services to Lagos, Nairobi and the Seychelles; however, the airline grows from a low capacity level last year. The biggest growth in absolute terms comes from Turkish Airlines, which has launched new non-stop flights to Accra, Dar Es Salaam, Kinshasa and Kigali. Meanwhile, Entebbe has been lost as a non-stop destination from Istanbul Atatürk, since the airline now serves the Ugandan capital via Tanzania’s capital Dar Es Salaam. Turkish Airlines has also boosted its operations to Khartoum, Lagos and Johannesburg by 30-40%, only reducing Nairobi capacity by 20%.
Emirates, which already is the biggest of the MEB3s and Turkish Airlines in the African market, has made greater adjustments to its existing network. Although the airline has launched two new routes, to Entebbe and Lusaka, considerable boosts also come from capacity increases to Durban (+55%) and Khartoum (+70%). Meanwhile, Emirates has halved capacity to Cape Town as frequencies have reduced from twice-daily to daily.
Ambitious Qatar Airways is also growing the Sub-Saharan market, although with less capacity than the other compared airlines. The airline has introduced new flights to Entebbe and doubled its capacity to Dar Es Salaam with the launch of stopping services to Kilimanjaro last week. The airline also planned to introduce flights to Mombasa later this month, but these plans now seem to have been abandoned.
In conclusion, the MEB3 and Turkish Airlines are on a much clearer expansion course in Sub-Saharan Africa where governments seem to embrace the successful airlines, while Europe’s large airline groups seem to prove being less reliable partners to the African airports and governments, as the airlines carefully reshift their networks at both ends – both between the groups’ European hubs and between African destinations.

fonte : anna.aero

 

[kenyaprince]

[h=1]The Middle East Big 3 in Europe: Soon to cover all markets; Emirates dominates…but not everywhere[/h]

By next February, the MEB3 airlines will serve 27 European countries in all corners of Europe. Watch out for growth in the Nordic markets – Sweden and Norway are only served by Qatar Airways which also has Helsinki on its radar.

The MEB3 – the Middle East Big 3 airlines – the expression coined by anna.aero to refer to the fast-growing Gulf carriers Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad, continue to grow their market shares globally. In Europe, the MEB3 have collectively grown their seat capacity by 23% in the last year.
At present, already-announced, but yet-to-be-launched European routes are Emirates’ services to Lyon and Warsaw as well as Qatar Airways’ routes to Warsaw and Belgrade (the latter will operate via Turkey’s capital Ankara). A deeper look at the MEB3 airlines’ offered capacity to European countries in February, when these routes will have launched, reveals the three airlines’ European network strategies.
The MEB3 airlines will by then serve 27 European countries in all corners of Europe; ranging from Cyprus and Russia in the east to Portugal and Ireland in the west. Emirates is by far the biggest, offering more than 2.5 times as many seats to European destinations as Qatar Airways, which in its turn is twice as big as Etihad in Europe.
[h=2]Emirates’ dominates West Europe; Qatar Airways alone in Nordic area[/h]

Source: SRS Analyser for w/c 11 February 2013

In the UK, the MEB3 airlines’ biggest European market by far, Emirates clearly dominates, offering twice the seat capacity of the other two airlines combined. Even in Germany, where Emirates has had difficulties in gaining access to all destinations it wishes to serve, the airline is the biggest of the MEB3, offering more than three times as many seats as Qatar Airways and four times’ Etihad’s capacity.
Italy stands out for being the MEB3 airlines’ third-biggest European market, in spite of ‘only’ being Europe’s fifth-biggest air transport market behind Spain and France. Italy ranks as #3 for both Emirates and Qatar Airways, while Etihad’s presence is more limited and the country market only is the airline’s sixth-largest in Europe.
The MEB3 airlines’ two smallest Western European markets, Sweden and Norway, are notably only served by Qatar Airways. The Nordic area appears to be part of its strategy, since the airline’s CEO Akbar Al Baker last year informally announced that Finland is on his airline’s horizon with a future Helsinki route.
Meanwhile, Emirates flies to three Western European countries not served by other MEB3 airlines; Malta, Netherlands and Portugal. Etihad’s more careful approach means that it faces competition from at least one other MEB3 carrier in all of its Western European country markets, with Dublin (Ireland) and Brussels (Belgium) being the only two with a single MEB3 competitor.
[h=2]Qatar Airways offers more Eastern Europe, but Poland to be its smallest market[/h]

Source: SRS Analyser for w/c 11 February 2013

Also in Eastern Europe, Emirates offers more capacity in its country markets than its MEB3 competitors. Greece is the only exception; the only European market where Emirates is present but is not the biggest MEB3 airline, as Qatar Airways’ Athens service is offered with higher capacity.
However, although Qatar Airways and Emirates are ‘going to war’ in Poland’s capital, with both airlines having announced new non-stop services from their respective hubs to Warsaw, the Polish market will rank as Qatar Airways’ smallest in Europe in terms of seat capacity offered, even smaller than country markets the airline only serves with stopping services, such as Croatia, Bulgaria and Serbia.
Qatar Airways’ focus on Eastern Europe is clear from the wide number of markets the airline serves in the region. While Emirates and Etihad serve one ‘monopoly’ country market each in the region, the Czech Republic (Prague) and Belarus (Minsk) respectively, Qatar Airways is the only MEB3 airline in five Eastern European country markets; Croatia (Zagreb), Hungary (Budapest), Bulgaria (Sofia), Romania (Bucharest) and Serbia (Belgrade).
Emirates does, however, have an even greater presence in Europe if including its low-cost sister airline flydubai that provides feed to Emirates’ onward network in Dubai. The 737-800 operator serves Ukraine, Russia, Serbia and Turkey in Europe and will launch further (Eastern) European routes this autumn with Bucharest in Romania beginning on 1 October and Skopje in Macedonia on 18 October. Although none of the MEB3 airlines serve Ukraine, the country is notably flydubai’s biggest European market.

 

[dreamliner]

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