Boeing potrebbe rispondere all' A320 neo, con un aereo completamente nuovo


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Buckingham predicts Boeing will respond to A320neo with all-new narrowbody

By Geoffrey Thomas | January 13, 2011

New York-based Buckingham Research Group believes that Boeing will counter the Airbus A320neo with an all-new narrowbody design to be launched later this year or early 2012 for delivery in 2017/2018.

Airbus on Tuesday announced that Indian LCC IndiGo will be the launch customer for the A320neo, the re-engined version of the A320 with a planned 2016 EIS that aims to improve fuel efficiency by 15% (ATW Daily News, Jan. 12). In a client report, Buckingham aviation analyst Richard Safran said Boeing will not re-engine the 737. "We think that the technology for a new aircraft with a 25% direct operating cost improvement could be available to support service entry in 2017/2018," he noted. "That's a change from our prior view, which was that [Boeing] would launch a narrowbody replacement in 2014 with a 2019/2020 service entry target."

He argued that with sustained higher fuel prices likely in the future, there will be demand for a more fuel efficient aircraft than any of the new market entrants, including the A320neo, can offer. Boeing will "need to respond to the threat of share loss posed by new entrants in the market," the Buckingham report stated, adding that "neither a re-engined 737NG nor A320neo offers operators a sufficient operating cost improvement to justify the price premium."

Buckingham posited that 737NG production rates could go above the current guidance of 38 per month: "We think Boeing will continue to raise production rates (possibly beyond 42 a month) in an effort to clear out the 737 backlog in preparation for the narrowbody replacement." Boeing has 2,186 unfilled 737NG orders, equating to about five years of production.

The research firm suggested Boeing is looking at two strategy options for an all-new narrowbody. The first option is to develop a family of two aircraft—a 125-180 seat aircraft to replace the 717 and 737-600/700/800, and a 180-240 seat, long range aircraft to replace the 757-200/300 and 737-900.

Another less likely option may be to continue production of the 737NG and develop a 180-240 seat aircraft to replace the 757-200/300 and 737-900, Buckingham noted, adding that any new aircraft would incorporate lessons learned from the 787 by lowering risk with less new technology and less outsourcing.

Buckingham claimed that with the demands of the A350, A400M and A380 programs, "Airbus [does not have] the manpower or funding at this time to launch a new narrowbody aircraft."

http://atwonline.com/eco-aviation/n...-will-respond-a320neo-all-new-narrowbody-0112
 
Potrebbe anche essere vero. Altrimenti nel giro di qualche anno, Boeing avrà una gamma di prodotti inferiori ad Airbus su tutta la linea ad eccezione del 787.
 
Sicuramente ci saranno dei progetti pronti nel cassetto, che con pochi aggiustamenti, all'occorrenza possono essere lanciati in poco tempo.
 
Sarà anche vero, ma partendo oggi e considerando un po di ritardi fisiologici arriverebbero quando il 320 NEO è già in piena maturità.

Poi il baby-Boeing non sarebbe neanche competitivo con sostituto del 320 che seguirebbe poco dopo perché le teconologie sembra non siano ancora mature. In sistesi questo è il motivo per cui nessuno dei due fa il primo passo nella sostituzione dei NB, muoversi per primi è una scelta perdente perché verrebbe fuori il prodotto meno attraente.
Al giorno d'oggi poi c'è un minor peso dei clienti "fedeli" cioè quelli che comprano da te a prescindere: il grosso del mercato sono delle startup sia in occidente che nei mercati emergenti e loro guardano a prezzi e performance.
 
Secondo me Boeing dovrebbe iniziare con il rivedere la cellula del 737, cappelliere troppo piccole, galley troppo stretti e cockpit minuscolo, il tutto rispetto al 320.
 
La sezione di fusoliera del 737 è la stessa del 707, sarebbe ora di andare oltre.
 
Potrebbe essere qualcosa del genere???
Tipo un piccolo 787 :) ??!

Radical4Bill737Upgrade737-900XG.jpg
 
Sembra che il giocattolo tutto nuovo si farà e sarà pronto tra una decina d'anni.

DATE:10/02/11
SOURCE:Air Transport Intelligence news

Boeing boss green-lights all-new next generation narrowbody
By Jon Ostrower

Boeing CEO Jim McNerney has given a rhetorical green light to replace the venerable 737, announcing the airframer intends to build a new aircraft to eclipse the re-engined Airbus A320neo, with a service entry around 2020.
Speaking at the Cowen and Company Aerospace and Defense Conference in New York City, McNerney says: "We're gonna do a new airplane. We're not done evaluating this whole situation yet, but our current bias is to not re-engine, is to move to an all-new airplane at the end of the decade, or the beginning of the next decade."
Boeing has continuously given small hints about its future plans, and McNerney's comments leave little ambiguity that a clean sheet design is in the company's future. But Boeing is officially seeking to temper his comments, saying a 737 replacement is "not a done deal" and is "still being evaluated".
Even though McNerney says entry into service could come earlier than 2020, the convergence of customer demand for a new aircraft, propulsion, systems and fuselage technology, as well as supply chain readiness, fits an end-of-decade first delivery.
McNerney suggests that the A320neo has put pressure on the smaller Bombardier CSeries, which shares a common power plant in the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan platform. While Airbus has focused on its existing customer base McNerney sees a looming threat to the 737: "That doesn't mean that as [Airbus gets] deeper in the development they're not going to approach our customer base. I think they will."
Airbus aims to deliver the first A320neo to launch customer Virgin America in 2016, with a yet undecided engine type. The carrier, in addition to the PW1100G, has a choice of the CFM Leap-X.
Boeing has three potential engines at its disposal for its new narrowbody including the current next-generation offerings from CFM and Pratt & Whitney, as well as the Rolls-Royce 133-445kN (30,000-100,000lb) thrust Advance3 future three-shaft Trent powerplant, which is currently in development and slated for a 2017 or 2018 entry into service.
"We're going to be talking to our customers concretely over the next year or two, very concretely," says McNerney. "I think in part because the re-engined Airbus airplane is out there. We're going to have more concrete discussions a little earlier, I think our customers are going to demand it and we will do it."
While there is a risk to Boeing in firming up plans for a new aircraft nearly eight years in advance of a service entry, McNerney believes that "customers are going to wait for this airplane, in part because they're going to know what it looks like over the next 18 months".
Yet Boeing's chief does admit that the A320neo, "on paper closes the value gap that we have enjoyed on a typical cash on cash analysis, we tend to do better. And I think part of the rationale of the neo is to close that gap. Now, will that put some pressure on our margins? Yes. maybe, but they've got to complete the development".
McNerney adds: "It's our judgment that our customers will wait for us, rather than move to an airplane that will obsolete itself when [Airbus develops] a new airplane. I understand why they're doing [the neo], we haven't seen the need for it yet. I feel pretty comfortable we can defend our customer base, both because they're not going ahead of us, they're catching up to us, and because we're going to be doing a new airplane that will go beyond the capability of what the neo can do."

http://www.flightglobal.com/article...ights-all-new-next-generation-narrowbody.html
 
malpensante ha detto:
Prudentemente bisogna aggiungere da 3 a 5 anni di ritardi.
Clicca per espandere...
Questa volta non credo. Sia perchè ci sono 10 anni di tempo a partire da ora, sia perchè il nuovo 737 dovrebbe usare gran parte della tecnologia del 787, che oggi è nuova e fonte di problemi, ma entro pochi anni dovrebbe essere completamente assimilata da Boeing ed essere travasata senza grosse novità sul fratellino.
In ogni caso qualcosa Boeing deve fare: Airbus con il 320 neo si è messa in una posizione di vantaggio, gli americani in qualche modo devono reagire: se hanno scelto di non rimotorizzare, l'unica alternativa è fare un NB nuovo, in tempi ovviamente lunghi ma non biblici. Se i primi esemplari fossero pronti 4 o 5 anni dopo l'entrata in servizio del "neo", credo che più di una compagnia potrebbe decidere di aspettare il nuovo Boeing, che sicuramente sarebbe molto più competitivo del concorrente europeo, che rimarrà comunque un aereo di vecchia concezione, nonostante i motori nuovi e le altre migliorie.
Una sfida molto interessante da gustare senza fretta.
 
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