Il seguente articolo, tratto dall'Economist di questa settimana fa un'analisi della situazione, pur senza aggiungere nulla di nuovo.
Pie in the sky
There is no Spanish or Italian solution to the problems of Iberia and Alitalia
FOR all the brave talk of liberalisation, the airline business has yet to escape the bane of economic nationalism. American airlines will still be out of bounds to foreign ownership when the new “open skies” agreement with Europe comes into force next April. And within the European Union, although such obstacles officially do not exist, the reality is rather different.
This week a €3.4 billion ($5 billion) consortium bid for Iberia, the Spanish “flag carrier” by British Airways (BA), Texas Pacific Group and three Spanish private-equity firms crumbled in the face of political resistance. Caja Madrid, a savings bank controlled by Madrid's regional government, raised its stake in Iberia to 23.3%. The move was designed to force BA, which owns 10%, to exercise pre-emption rights and raise its own stake, or back off. Having promised not to spend BA's cash on the bid, Willie Walsh, its chief executive, had no option but to retreat.
Meanwhile on December 5th Alitalia, Italy's national airline, hopes to receive non-binding offers for most of the Italian government's 49.9% stake. It may be disappointed. Alitalia, which loses about €1m a day, is a very different proposition from Iberia, which is decently managed and modestly profitable. But its fate also lies in the hands of politicians rather than those appointed to run the business.
Having made a basket-case of Alitalia through years of interference, the Italian government doomed a previous attempt to auction its shares last July by imposing a string of conditions, including requirements to maintain bloated staffing levels (cabin crew work less than 10 hours a week), keep open loss-making routes, retain Rome as a hub airport and preserve Alitalia's national identity. This time round, the conditions of sale are said to be less onerous, but so far the only airline that looks almost certain to bid is Air One. Despite being Italy's second-biggest carrier, it is a relative tiddler with revenues last year just one-eighth of Alitalia's. Air One has political support and the backing of Italy's second-biggest bank. But industry observers reckon that Alitalia has little future outside the sheltering embrace of one of the big three European network carriers—Lufthansa, Air France-KLM or BA.
The same is true of Iberia, even though it is much healthier. Its domestic and short-haul routes, like Alitalia's, are under relentless attack from low-cost competitors such as Ryanair and Easyjet. And the final section of the Madrid-Barcelona high-speed rail link is about to open, depriving Iberia of Europe's most profitable route. Innovata, a provider of travel-industry data, says that since 2002 Iberia's domestic market share has fallen from 59% to 32%, and Alitalia's from 52% to 40%.
Iberia's chairman, Fernando Conte, is a realist who advocates further consolidation. He would have welcomed a tie-up between Iberia and BA if it could have been done speedily and on the right terms. The two airlines are members of the same alliance and co-operate on a number of routes. BA says it is not too sorry to have failed to bag Iberia. But its hope for business as usual is probably forlorn. Iberia will eventually have to find a partner with scale and financial clout. Lufthansa, which has far less overlap with Iberia's lucrative Latin American routes than Air France-KLM does, seems the likeliest candidate.
Nor is there an Italian solution to Alitalia's plight, whatever politicians imagine. Nick van den Brul of Exane BNP Paribas points out that although the Italian business-travel market is booming, the only value in Alitalia itself is “option value” contingent upon a purchaser's ability to do whatever is needed to turn the business around. With net debt of around €1.2 billion, an elderly fleet and at least ten stroppy unions to deal with, any potential buyer—Air France-KLM says it is still interested—will want the Italian government to take on some of the risk. When will reality bite? That is the awkward question for the meddling politicians of Italy and Spain.
Pie in the sky
There is no Spanish or Italian solution to the problems of Iberia and Alitalia
FOR all the brave talk of liberalisation, the airline business has yet to escape the bane of economic nationalism. American airlines will still be out of bounds to foreign ownership when the new “open skies” agreement with Europe comes into force next April. And within the European Union, although such obstacles officially do not exist, the reality is rather different.
This week a €3.4 billion ($5 billion) consortium bid for Iberia, the Spanish “flag carrier” by British Airways (BA), Texas Pacific Group and three Spanish private-equity firms crumbled in the face of political resistance. Caja Madrid, a savings bank controlled by Madrid's regional government, raised its stake in Iberia to 23.3%. The move was designed to force BA, which owns 10%, to exercise pre-emption rights and raise its own stake, or back off. Having promised not to spend BA's cash on the bid, Willie Walsh, its chief executive, had no option but to retreat.
Meanwhile on December 5th Alitalia, Italy's national airline, hopes to receive non-binding offers for most of the Italian government's 49.9% stake. It may be disappointed. Alitalia, which loses about €1m a day, is a very different proposition from Iberia, which is decently managed and modestly profitable. But its fate also lies in the hands of politicians rather than those appointed to run the business.
Having made a basket-case of Alitalia through years of interference, the Italian government doomed a previous attempt to auction its shares last July by imposing a string of conditions, including requirements to maintain bloated staffing levels (cabin crew work less than 10 hours a week), keep open loss-making routes, retain Rome as a hub airport and preserve Alitalia's national identity. This time round, the conditions of sale are said to be less onerous, but so far the only airline that looks almost certain to bid is Air One. Despite being Italy's second-biggest carrier, it is a relative tiddler with revenues last year just one-eighth of Alitalia's. Air One has political support and the backing of Italy's second-biggest bank. But industry observers reckon that Alitalia has little future outside the sheltering embrace of one of the big three European network carriers—Lufthansa, Air France-KLM or BA.
The same is true of Iberia, even though it is much healthier. Its domestic and short-haul routes, like Alitalia's, are under relentless attack from low-cost competitors such as Ryanair and Easyjet. And the final section of the Madrid-Barcelona high-speed rail link is about to open, depriving Iberia of Europe's most profitable route. Innovata, a provider of travel-industry data, says that since 2002 Iberia's domestic market share has fallen from 59% to 32%, and Alitalia's from 52% to 40%.
Iberia's chairman, Fernando Conte, is a realist who advocates further consolidation. He would have welcomed a tie-up between Iberia and BA if it could have been done speedily and on the right terms. The two airlines are members of the same alliance and co-operate on a number of routes. BA says it is not too sorry to have failed to bag Iberia. But its hope for business as usual is probably forlorn. Iberia will eventually have to find a partner with scale and financial clout. Lufthansa, which has far less overlap with Iberia's lucrative Latin American routes than Air France-KLM does, seems the likeliest candidate.
Nor is there an Italian solution to Alitalia's plight, whatever politicians imagine. Nick van den Brul of Exane BNP Paribas points out that although the Italian business-travel market is booming, the only value in Alitalia itself is “option value” contingent upon a purchaser's ability to do whatever is needed to turn the business around. With net debt of around €1.2 billion, an elderly fleet and at least ten stroppy unions to deal with, any potential buyer—Air France-KLM says it is still interested—will want the Italian government to take on some of the risk. When will reality bite? That is the awkward question for the meddling politicians of Italy and Spain.
