Bernstein: Boeing, Airbus likely to launch re-engined narrowbodies
Thursday April 8, 2010
Boeing and Airbus, driven by competition from Bombardier's CSeries, will both announce narrowbody re-engining programs this year, Bernstein Research predicted in a newly released report.
The New York firm said the decision will center on Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G geared turbofan and CFM International's LEAP-X, both of which promise a 15% fuel burn gain over engines powering today's 737s and A320s. The PW1000G will power the CSeries set to enter service in 2013 and the LEAP-X will power COMAC's C919 slated to enter service in 2016.
Bernstein said Rolls-Royce is lagging in developing a next-generation narrowbody engine and Pratt President David Hess last week acknowledged that talks with Rolls about developing a V2500 successor through International Aero Engines using a geared turbofan concept have been "tough" with no agreement in sight.
While it believes the rival manufacturers likely will announce re-engining programs this year, Bernstein does identify potential hurdles that could lead Boeing and Airbus to shy away. A major concern is the impact on existing backlogs of the 737 and A320 families.
The research firm said the biggest barrier for Airbus in making the re-engine decision is "comfort with engineering resource availability, given the demands on the A350, A380 and A400M. The company does not want to put any of these three programs at risk, which is the one factor that we think could stop an A320 re-engine decision."
The report noted that "the CSeries is the most important near-term threat while China [C919] represents the most important long-term threat." However, Bernstein said there is doubt about "Bombardier's ability to bring the CSeries [to market] close to schedule or performance expectations." Nevertheless, it predicted that neither Boeing nor Airbus will be willing to take the chance that the CSeries will fall short.
In a dire warning for Bombardier, the firm predicted that "an Airbus or Boeing re-engine would crush the CSeries." Re-engining is attractive to the two manufacturers because neither sees "current technology options as sufficiently attractive to justify the investment in an all-new airplane to enter service during this decade."
The research group believes Airbus will announce first. It believes that Boeing will only commit if Airbus does and that the 737NG will be more constrained in terms of engineering modifications, meaning that the re-engined aircraft likely will have a sole-source LEAP-X engine.
by Geoffrey Thomas
ATWOnline
Thursday April 8, 2010
Boeing and Airbus, driven by competition from Bombardier's CSeries, will both announce narrowbody re-engining programs this year, Bernstein Research predicted in a newly released report.
The New York firm said the decision will center on Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G geared turbofan and CFM International's LEAP-X, both of which promise a 15% fuel burn gain over engines powering today's 737s and A320s. The PW1000G will power the CSeries set to enter service in 2013 and the LEAP-X will power COMAC's C919 slated to enter service in 2016.
Bernstein said Rolls-Royce is lagging in developing a next-generation narrowbody engine and Pratt President David Hess last week acknowledged that talks with Rolls about developing a V2500 successor through International Aero Engines using a geared turbofan concept have been "tough" with no agreement in sight.
While it believes the rival manufacturers likely will announce re-engining programs this year, Bernstein does identify potential hurdles that could lead Boeing and Airbus to shy away. A major concern is the impact on existing backlogs of the 737 and A320 families.
The research firm said the biggest barrier for Airbus in making the re-engine decision is "comfort with engineering resource availability, given the demands on the A350, A380 and A400M. The company does not want to put any of these three programs at risk, which is the one factor that we think could stop an A320 re-engine decision."
The report noted that "the CSeries is the most important near-term threat while China [C919] represents the most important long-term threat." However, Bernstein said there is doubt about "Bombardier's ability to bring the CSeries [to market] close to schedule or performance expectations." Nevertheless, it predicted that neither Boeing nor Airbus will be willing to take the chance that the CSeries will fall short.
In a dire warning for Bombardier, the firm predicted that "an Airbus or Boeing re-engine would crush the CSeries." Re-engining is attractive to the two manufacturers because neither sees "current technology options as sufficiently attractive to justify the investment in an all-new airplane to enter service during this decade."
The research group believes Airbus will announce first. It believes that Boeing will only commit if Airbus does and that the 737NG will be more constrained in terms of engineering modifications, meaning that the re-engined aircraft likely will have a sole-source LEAP-X engine.
by Geoffrey Thomas
ATWOnline
