Norwegian faces collapse

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Icaro821

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30 Novembre 2016
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Oggi ad Oslo le azioni Norwegian sono scese a 30 NOK, giorno dopo giorno sempre più giù
 

Farfallina

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sasha

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28 Settembre 2011
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Da 2 anni lax viene operata solamente nella summer.. Ottimi risultati di traffico sulle tratte boston ewr oak e lax.. Si prevedono nuove tratte.. Ovviamente rispettando la messa a terra dei 787 per il problema motori.. Tak
 

AZ209

Socio AIAC
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24 Ottobre 2006
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Londra.
Analisti di Bernstein impietosi.

Norwegian 'not an airline anybody should be buying': Bernstein

Analysts at Bernstein have expressed doubts that IAG will make a new bid for Norwegian, citing the Scandinavian low-cost carrier's high debt levels and the "late-cycle environment" in which the European airline sector operates.
This follows a Spanish media report of 4 July which suggested that IAGwould launch a takeover bid for Norwegian within the next 15 days. The report has been firmly rejected by IAG. "We have said that we are no longer interested in Norwegian several times in the last few months. Nothing has changed," says the group.
In its research note on the episode, Bernstein writes: "We do not think any deal for NAS [Norwegian Air Shuttle] is likely. Norwegian is a mountain of debt with a sliver of equity. NAS will have to go to great lengths to slowly move away from that ledge, and – in our view – likely needs another equity infusion... within the next nine months. This is not an airline anybody should be buying."
Arguing that Norwegian's balance sheet is "in dire straits", Bernstein suggests that "it is not inconceivable that the distressed low-cost carrier would welcome" a fresh approach from IAG, but declares itself "sceptical" that the group would make one. "We do not think that in Norwegian's current state the debt-ridden airline can hope for a white knight," adds Bernstein. "It will have to try and survive on its own."
After making two bids for Norwegian that were rejected in May 2018, IAG in January 2019 issued a statement saying it would not make a further offer and would sell its 3.93% stake in the carrier.
Bernstein says it agreed with IAG's assessment, last year, that Norwegianwas an interesting strategic option, but stresses that the group "should not overpay for it", adding: "Fast forward to today, and NAS has taken delivery of additional aircraft and initiated a restructuring program to reduce [unit-cost metric] CASKx... But cycle worries and more debt urge caution.
"With the late-cycle environment less supportive for airlines, and NAS's debt load continuing to increase (currently circa €6.8 billion [$7.7 billion], more than IAG's), we would expect IAG to be very cautious on further bids."
Bernstein likewise cited the late-cycle environment when, in a 1 July note, it downgraded its outlook for both Lufthansa and IAG, moving the groups from an "outperform" rating to a "market-perform" one. The note also disclosed a downgrading of Norwegian to "underperform".
Lufthansa and IAG are both, in Bernstein's view, lacking "significant catalysts" or "near-term earnings growth" potential. The German group will need to prove its success in significantly reducing costs despite a much slower growth outlook, adds Bernstein, which notes the risks of "a faster entry of low-cost airlines in Germany or long-haul" and "associated yield declines", and of "failure to complete the Air Berlin deal", or delays therein, or "inadequate integration" of the acquired assets.
Bernstein identifies as the greatest downside risks for IAG any prolonged recession in the UK, inability to improve economic performance at Vuelingand/or Iberia, and adverse regulatory effects arising from Brexit, "especially regarding airline ownership nationality clauses or the US-EU open skies agreement".
The analysts see leisure demand as softer in 2019 than in the two previous "record-setting" years, and see signs of a "significant" slowdown in short-haul corporate travel demand.
This, Bernstein suggests, is "one of the first business expenses companies target when curtailing spending", and "long-haul business trips may be next".
On the supply side, meanwhile, Bernstein notes "continued acceleration", especially in short-haul deliveries. "The current delay of the Boeing Max deliveries may further compound the flood of planes headed for the European market in 2020," it warns.
Bernstein also identifies a danger that airlines are "chasing demand downhill".
"It is time to take a step back from European airlines," the analysts assert in their 1 July note. "We have entered into firm late-cycle territory, and as the cycle approaches its end, we do not want to be buyers of any airline."FG

 

sasha

Bannato
28 Settembre 2011
238
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Non essere patetico con il "good luck".. Siete sempre gli stessi che davano norwegian chiusa 2 anni fa.. E nonostante le perdite. I max, i motori 787, e tutto quello che ne consegue, viaggia sul 90 95% di riempimento, deduco che il concept cmq ha un valore..
 
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